Kansas City’s regular-season statistical trends may tell us what to expect in the postseason.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ fans have grown accustomed to the difference between the regular season and postseason, when the team seems to take its performance to another level. Still, the picture painted by 2024’s 15-2 season result may give us an idea about what to expect in the season’s most important matchups.
Here are five significant statistics from Kansas City’s regular season:
1. The Kansas City offense has the league’s longest possessions
On average, the Chiefs’ offensive drives used 3:08 of game time, which led the NFL. The team also averaged the most plays per drive (6.7).
For most of the season, these statistics reflected the Chiefs’ efficient ground attack. But as the offense transitioned to a more pass-oriented approach, it was still able to sustain drives. In large part, this was because quarterback Patrick Mahomes improved his ball security in the season’s second half: over the final eight games, Mahomes threw 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
In the playoffs, Kansas City needs to continue leaning on high-percentage, low-risk plays that gain yards, allowing it to avoid third-and-long situations. This will also help finish red-zone opportunities. In 2024, the Chiefs ranked 22nd in red-zone touchdown rate (53.8%).
2. The defense allowed the fourth-fewest runs for 10+ yards
This season, Kansas City surrendered 42 runs of 10 or more yards, which tied the Denver Broncos for the NFL’s fourth-fewest.
While the Chiefs have had a stout run defense for most of the season, there have been blemishes in recent games. In Week 17, the Pittsburgh Steelers managed 202 rushing yards — and in Week 15, the Cleveland Browns had a 62-yard running play. But these were outliers for a unit that consistently forced teams into second-and-long.
In the postseason, limiting explosive runs by teams like the Buffalo Bills or Baltimore Ravens will be crucial. For these teams, big rushing plays can only make things easier for their star quarterbacks.
3. Patrick Mahomes set a career-low for time to throw
PFF says Mahomes averaged 2.76 seconds from snap to throw — his fastest time in any season as a starter. It ranked ninth among 2024’s starting quarterbacks.
It is no coincidence that this took shape as Kansas City reworked its offensive lineup. Joe Thuney has held up well at left tackle, but the offense has also benefitted from the quarterback’s faster release. The ascension of rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy — and the return of veteran receiver Hollywood Brown — have helped it along.
In the postseason, this needs to continue; it will help keep the offense in rhythm. The AFC playoffs will feature four of the top six teams in sacks. That doesn’t even include the Bills, who sacked Mahomes twice in Week 11 — and also forced an interception during a drawn-out dropback.
4. The Chiefs are among the leaders in third-and-long blitzes
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo sent more than four pass rushers on 47% of the team’s third-and-longs (seven or more yards to go). Only the Detroit Lions (54%) did it more often.
In these situations, Spagnuolo’s goal is to heat up the opposing quarterback — but for the calls to work, strong pass coverage is needed. Down the stretch, this hasn’t been Kansas City’s strong suit — which has allowed opposing quarterbacks to find more third-and-long success than usual.
In the playoffs, it will be worth monitoring how often Spagnuolo calls blitzes on obvious passing downs. Cornerback Jaylen Watson’s possible return from injury could go a long way toward shoring up the back end and strengthening the defense’s ability to cover up quick outlets.
It’s also worth noting that in recent games, the Chiefs’ four-man pass rush has improved. Will it be good enough for Spagnuolo to trust it more often in do-or-die circumstances?
5. Mahomes throws into tight windows less often than any other starter
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, only 10.3% of Mahomes’ pass attempts are thrown into tight windows — which are defined by the targeted receiver having less than one yard of separation from defenders when the ball arrives.
No NFL starter has a lower tight-window percentage. While this speaks to the space Kansas City’s scheme can create, it also shows Mahomes’ conservative nature. He rarely forces throws; he’s typically more likely to use his legs rather than put up a 50-50 jump ball.
In the postseason, Mahomes will have to let it rip into tight spaces more often — and he now has the players to do so. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has built up his chemistry with Mahomes on contested sideline throws. Tight ends Travis Kelce and Noah Gray can both be trusted to hang on to tough passes in traffic.
Especially in crucial moments, look for Mahomes to push the envelope more often.