Fresh off a bye week, Kansas City is welcoming in a Houston team with upstart momentum.
It’s time. After an 18-week dress rehearsal the rest of the league calls the “regular season,” the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) are opening postseason play against the Houston Texans (10-8) in the AFC Divisional round. It will be the first of four playoff games this weekend, kicking off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. amid GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Chiefs’ starters will wake up on gameday 23 days removed from the Christmas Day victory that sealed the postseason bye week. Conversely, the Texans have gathered confidence from a 32-12 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round.
Four weeks ago, the Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 in Arrowhead. The defending Super Bowl champions have a clean injury report and rest, while Houston has key players who are questionable.
It sets the stage for the Chiefs to be the firm favorite and the Texans to play spoiler, looking to avenge the two postseason losses suffered by Kansas City over the last decade.
Here are five things to watch in the Divisional round opener:
1. The Chiefs’ starting offensive line
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On Friday, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that Joe Thuney is expected to start at left tackle over veteran D.J. Humphries.
The decision sheds some light on what the Chiefs’ offense will value in the postseason. Pass protection is clearly paramount; the pass attack was in as good a rhythm as it has been all season with Thuney protecting the blind side. The run game was drastically less efficient in the three games without Thuney at left guard.
Weeks 1-14: 46.5% rushing success rate (NFL Rank: 1st)
Weeks 15-17: 37% rushing success rate (NFL Rank: 25th)
Thuney at left tackle may raise the level of pass protection, but it could still expose left guard Mike Caliendo on pass downs. In the Wild Card win, the Texans produced three sacks; two of them occurred by defensive end Denico Autry winning past a guard.
2. Earning the right to rush C.J. Stroud
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The Texans’ offense is centered around work-horse running back Joe Mixon, setting the tone on the ground, shortening the sticks and setting up play-action pass opportunities. He rushed for 106 yards over 25 carries in the Wild Card win, laying the foundation for the Texans’ second-most productive game of the season by total yards.
That voluminous game had some consequences: Mixon is questionable to play with an ankle injury this week. Whether or not he is available, the Chiefs’ defense has to kill the engine of the run game to set up the pass rush. Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud excels off run fakes, completing 71% of his play-action passes this year.
In Week 16, the Chiefs limited Mixon to only 57 rushing yards over 14 attempts. A similar effort will present opportunities for the Chiefs’ pass rush to pin their ears and get after Stroud on long second or third downs.
3. Attacking the Texans’ pass protection
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The Chiefs’ pass rush is fresh and ready to put their stamp on the playoff run. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is full go after a calf injury kept him out of Week 17.
Jones and the headliners will demand the attention of a Texans’ offense that allowed the third-most sacks among all teams in the regular season. It’s the Chiefs’ rotational rushers that can make a difference in one-on-one situations. Defensive linemen Tershawn Wharton and Mike Danna can disrupt inside while the big names cave the pocket from the outside.
The Texans are projected to be getting back starting right guard Shaq Mason, who has not played since Week 16 with a knee injury. He was not on the final injury report. That could shore up an interior offensive line that shifted center Juice Scruggs over to Mason’s spot. Scruggs was limited in practice this week with an ankle injury.
Jones’ sights will be set on rookie right tackle Blake Fisher. Jones likes to align over that edge on pass downs, and Fisher has allowed four sacks and six other quarterback hits over six starts at right tackle this season.
4. Focused coverage on Nico Collins
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When Stroud throws the ball, he will most likely look for wide receiver Nico Collins. He is a significant threat but the only real difference-maker left in Houston’s receiving corps.
The Chiefs firmly focused on taking away Collins in the previous matchup, limiting him to only 60 receiving yards over 10 targets. The emphasis was on preventing passes over the middle to Collins, who earned 104 yards and a touchdown on in-breaking routes in the Wild Card round.
In Week 16, the Chiefs intercepted two passes thrown between the numbers to Collins. Look for that same emphasis on Saturday, and if the Chiefs can handle that without tight end Dalton Schultz making them pay. Kansas City ended the regular season with the most receiving yards allowed to tight ends (1,191).
5. Hitting on explosive play opportunities
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The Chiefs’ offense is expected to switch to playoff mode, which should mean strong play designs and an effective scheme to ensure drives end in touchdowns rather than field goals.
That obviously points to finishing more red-zone opportunities; the Chiefs ranked 22nd in red-zone conversion rate this season. However, the offense can skip a step by hitting on more explosive plays, whether run or pass.
Over the last two postseasons, running back Isiah Pacheco has gashed the defense 13 times for a gain of 10 or more yards.
On the outside, look for Texans’ rookie cornerback Kamari Lassiter matched up with either of the Chiefs’ speed threats: Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown. Lassiter is an aggressive playmaker but may not have the play speed to keep up with either down the field.