Against the Texans, the Chiefs’ quick passes were bottled up

To secure Saturday’s playoff win, the Kansas City offense had to overcome an aggressive Houston defense.

Even in the wintery conditions on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, there was no easy sledding for the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense in their 23-14 Divisional round victory — because Houston Texans’ defense came to play, holding the Chiefs to the fewest total yards (212) in any game played by their starters this season.

One of the Texans’ big factors was winning the time of possession. The Chiefs were limited to 50 offensive plays — tied for the fewest run by the starters in any game this season. The low-scoring battle seemed to come down to quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce making plays in key moments.

Outside of Kelce’s 117 yards (and a big touchdown), Kansas City’s skill-position players combined for 60 receiving yards on 16 targets — and in Sunday’s AFC Championship against the second-seeded Buffalo Bills, such a lack of production will be much harder to overcome.

It started with the Texans’ aggressive defense against short, quick passes:

Ineffective quick passes

As the regular season neared its end, the Kansas City offense found a rhythm with quick passes. The Week 16 matchup with the Texans was one of the strongest examples: on passes thrown less than 2.5 seconds after the snap, Mahomes completed 17 of 19 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown.

But in Saturday’s game, Mahomes mustered on 31 yards on seven such completions, averaging 2.8 yards per attempt on those throws.

The Texans were clearly keyed into some of the Chiefs’ foundational passing schemes.

On this first down, the play-call is one of Kansas City’s typical drive starters: Y-stick. Kelce runs an option route based on coverage; Mahomes has a simple read that usually gains about five yards. Defenses rarely succeed against this play — but here, the Texans’ nickel defender anticipates the quick route and breaks it up.

On this third down, the Chiefs run Kelce and tight end Noah Gray on a high-low concept over the middle, trying to put stress on the middle linebacker in coverage.

At the snap, Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair gains depth to pick up Kelce on the deeper pattern, triggering Mahomes to throw short to Gray. That’s likely to be just what Al-Shaair wanted; he immediately reacts to the throw, stopping Gray short of the first-down marker.

The Chiefs attempted to counter the Texans’ downhill aggressiveness with a few timing screens that put the offensive line out into space, but none were successful. The first two came on long downs — a predictable time for these plays — demonstrating that sometimes, the timing of the call can be just as important as its design.

Mahomes’ short accuracy wasn’t up to his normal standard, either. Against a defense with urgency toward the ball, that can make a big difference on quick-hitting throws. Mahomes made a handful of throws behind his target, lowering each play’s ceiling.

On the third down before the fourth-quarter field goal, Worthy created separation on an out route leading to the first-down marker. Mahomes’ blitz-beating throw was inside, forcing Worthy to turn and secure the pass short of the sticks. A more accurate throw could have extended the late-game possession.

Looking further downfield

Houston’s focus on the underneath passes left them vulnerable further downfield — and when he needed to do so, Mahomes was able to take advantage: he completed all five of his passes 10-19 yards downfield, totaling 122 yards and a score. It was the second-most intermediate passing yards Mahomes had gained in one game this season.

Four of those connections were with Kelce, who played off the Texans’ focus on defending short routes.

On these two plays, the second level of the defense gravitates towards the flat, leaving big windows for Kelce to work into.

The fifth downfield completion went to Worthy, who displayed his growth as a sideline receiver with strong positioning and good hands to secure the back-shoulder pass. The play-call exposes the Texans’ game plan, lining up Worthy in the backfield to force a Houston defender to come up and stick with him after an extended free release.

Missed deep shots

With clear attention on the Chiefs’ short game, the Texans were bound to allow opportunities for deep passes. Mahomes only found two chances to let it rip down the field. While neither was completed, both came open.

Wide receiver Hollywood Brown was the target on both plays. He was inches away from an opening-drive touchdown and a 45-yard completion.

On the first target, the Chiefs use wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to release vertically and occupy the play-side safety. That leaves the deep portion of the sideline open for Brown, who sells an out route before cutting up the sideline past the flat defender. The pass is simply too far.

On the second play, the safety on Brown’s side plays up, anticipating an in-breaking route. Brown paces his initial release to hold the safety in a shallow position before accelerating past him on the outside. Mahomes makes a perfect pass over Brown’s outside shoulder. The wideout corrals the ball, but is unable to secure it through contact with the ground.

The bottom line

Houston’s off-ball defenders aggressively covered Kansas City’s quick throws. This was paired with an impactful pass rush to disrupt the Chiefs’ passing game. While Mahomes was able to attack the defensive scheme’s flaws at the right times, similar production probably won’t be enough against the Bills in the AFC Championship.

The Chiefs need to find more space for quick passes through strong play design. If Buffalo takes those away, Mahomes has to make them pay for it with deep completions. For the quarterback and his speedy receivers, it’s now or never.