Explaining how the Chiefs lost to the Bills on third downs

The key difference on Sunday was the success on third down (on both sides of the ball).

There has been a lot of consternation over the Kansas City Chiefs’ record and point differential this year, but despite some of their struggles, they were 9-0 coming into the game.

What set the Chiefs apart was their third-down execution on both sides of the ball.

On offense, the Chiefs are first in third-down conversion rate. This is often when Patrick Mahomes becomes a superhero, uncorking ridiculous throws out-of-structure or scrambling. On defense, the Chiefs aren’t quite as efficient — they rank 21st — but were top-10 before November. Third downs on defense are when Steve Spagnuolo cooks, going into his bag of pressures and designer coverages to throw offenses off.

However, when I watched the game this week, I thought both teams were even on first and second down, but third-down execution was the difference. Buffalo was 10 of 16 on offense on third downs, while Kansas City was just 5 of 10. And while 5 of 10 isn’t bad, the Chiefs converted two third-and-inches for first downs and missed one — so on other third downs, they were only 3 of 7.

Today, let’s break down how both units struggled on third down:

Offense

It’s harder to forecast too many offensive issues for the Chiefs on third down, where they still were 5 of 10, but I do think the Chiefs had two main issues on third down, particularly on third-and-long.

1. Buffalo playing man coverage
2. Buffalo’s pass rush integrity

Let’s start with No. 1.

Unlike any previous matchup between these teams, Buffalo was finally willing to play man coverage. The Bills have always had a secondary disadvantage against Kansas City’s speed, but with its personnel vs. the Chiefs’ slower personnel, Buffalo decided to get physical and stick to routes.

Tight end Travis Kelce couldn’t find any space all game, DeAndre Hopkins lost his one-on-ones, and the Chiefs couldn’t find answers that got the Bills into softer shells.

I truly felt the difference this week was that Buffalo did an excellent job keeping pass-rush integrity and still getting pressure. Buffalo’s front had an excellent game plan. Take this rep, for example:

Greg Rousseau, a long-armed power rusher, is going to use a bullrush to free himself around the corner, swiping through to keep Mahomes from bailing. Von Miller, who has played Kansas City so many times he knows all of Mahomes’s tendencies, spins inside to keep the pocket tight, working off Rousseau. Ed Oliver wins up the middle.

Buffalo also smartly used a ton of three-man rushes, using a linebacker as a spy anytime Mahomes bailed. Both Terrell Bernard and Dorian Williams are very fast, so they can chase Mahomes down and speed Mahomes’s clock up.

The Bills always coach their pass rushers incredibly well against Kansas City. The Chiefs offensive line needs to play with more force against three-man rushes — particularly at tackle, where Wanya Morris and Jawaan Taylor were bad. Credit Buffalo for their plan and execution.

Defense

The third-down defense was the real killer for the Chiefs, where Buffalo went 10 of 16 on Sunday. On defense, I’d identify three core issues;

1. Nazeeh Johnson is being targeted
2. Buffalo attacking the Chiefs’ safeties in man coverage
3. Kansas City’s lack of pass-rush presence

To start with, Johnson, Buffalo relentlessly attacked him one-on-one.

They didn’t often target Trent McDuffie besides one go route between Cooper and McDuffie, which he blew up. Instead, they identified Johnson as a defender to attack, and they succeeded in that.

The go ball Cooper caught over him was good coverage but a better throw, but the bigger issue was how often Johnson was in conflict. Buffalo consistently switched their releases and numbers to confuse him, and he was always wrong.

Johnson would often go with the wrong route or be late to recover from a release. Buffalo was attacking his eyes and ability to read things correctly, and on Sunday, he was wrong.

I’ve covered this over the past few weeks, but since the Jaylen Watson injury, the Chiefs are now just playing two cornerbacks (Johnson/McDuffie) and instead turning to three or four safeties at a time in their secondary. While I agree with the decision — they are currently the six best defensive backs on the roster — it does lead to situations where the Chiefs are forced to play man coverage with their safeties.

If the Chiefs want to play man coverage or blitz, that is going to leave safeties on an island one-on-one, and with Justin Reid, Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook, they’re not good defenders in those spots. Even Charmarri Conner, the best-man coverage defender of the four, isn’t that fast and fluid to cover fast receivers like Curtis Samuel.

Buffalo was able to force Kansas City’s safeties to communicate man coverage switches and tackle in space, and the Chiefs couldn’t do it. This concerns me in a rematch if Watson isn’t healthy.

I could’ve posted a few clips, but the Chiefs’ pass rush was bad on Sunday. Chris Jones was winning one-on-one, but he couldn’t finish plays with sacks. Besides that and a few Tershawn Wharton wins, the Chiefs did nothing to affect the pocket.

Even with their blitzes, the Chiefs couldn’t affect the pocket. Joe Brady had a read on nearly every blitz; Allen was able to switch protections, finding open routes off switch releases in man coverage vs. non-McDuffie defenders.

The bottom line

The Chiefs this season have been a third-down machine. In money situations, both sides of the ball always execute. Third down isn’t everything in football, but for me, it usually separates elite units.

Your coordinators present their most exotic calls, and the quarterback has to handle tight situations against a fierce pass rush and designer coverage. What’s always separated Kansas City is that they have Mahomes, a literal god on third down, and Spagnuolo, who always designs tremendous third-down playcalls.

This week, the Chiefs lost, and of any team in the NFL, I think the Bills are the team that can hurt the Chiefs on both sides on third down. Josh Allen is a supernova the Chiefs have never stopped despite their record against him, and while I do think Mahomes and Kansas City will be better in their next matchup on third down, Sean McDermott and the Bills coach their defense so well. They have improved their third-down diversity over the past two years.

If and when these teams meet again, the Chiefs must execute better on money downs if they hope to win.