Mel Kiper’s mock draft 4.0 sticks with an offensive tackle to the Chiefs

In his latest mock, the ESPN draft analyst picks Ohio State’s Josh Simmons for Kansas City.

On Tuesday, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. published mock draft 4.0 for 2025, in which he sent an offensive tackle to the Kansas City Chiefs with the 31st pick of the first round.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: T Josh Simmons, Ohio State

If Simmons didn’t injure his knee last October, we might not be having this conversation — because his projection might be closer to the top 10. He has really good footwork and power, and he gave up just one sack over 19 career starts at left tackle. Heck, he hadn’t given up a single pressure in six games before the injury last season. That’s the kind of pass protection the Chiefs need.

Kansas City tried Wanya Morris and Kingsley Suamataia at left tackle, but neither held up well. It kicked guard Joe Thuney outside, but he’s in Chicago now. The Chiefs have to find a legitimate answer, and while they signed Jaylon Moore to be that, it’s no sure thing. He was a backup in San Francisco.

And then in Round 2, Kiper goes with a running back.

63. Kansas City Chiefs: RB Kaleb Johnson, Iowa

Isiah Pacheco was out for most of the season (leg), and Kareem Hunt was signed off the street as a replacement. Still, we can’t ignore the Chiefs’ 4.0 yards per carry last season, which ranked 29th in the NFL. No team had fewer runs for at least 10 yards (33). Kansas City re-signed Hunt and brought in Elijah Mitchell to back up Pacheco, but Johnson could entirely revitalize this run game. He ran for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns last season.

In his first mock from January, Kiper thought Mississippi defensive tackle Walter Nolen would be the Chiefs’ first-round pick. But since then, he’s consistently sent an offensive tackle to Kansas City. A month later, Kiper decided on Minnesota tackle Aireontae Ersery. In 3.0, he went with Texas tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.

In Tuesday’s mock, Nolen lasts until the 39th pick in the second round, Ersery is nowhere to be found, and Banks comes off the board with the 18th pick. Other popular Kansas City picks like guard Donovan Jackson (24th), tackle Josh Conerly Jr. (25th), defensive tackle Derrick Harmon (26th) are gone before the Chiefs are on the clock, while EDGE James Pearce Jr. (32nd) and defensive tackle Kenneth Grant (43rd) remain available.

So in Kiper’s mock — like some other recent ones — Simmons falls to the Chiefs, while players like Conerly and Harmon would only be available if the Chiefs trade up.

With 99 mock drafts in our sample, Simmons (17%) has now been chosen with the 31st pick more often than any other player, followed by Conerly (12%), Harmon (8%), Nolen (6%) and Jackson (6%). Offensive line (49%) remains well ahead of defensive line (33%) as the most common position group chosen.

But as we see in these recent figures (since a week ago Monday), those two position groups are now in a dead heat — and Simmons is the clear favorite. Will this trend continue over the next two weeks? Will that predict what the Chiefs will do?