The AP staff (and our readers) pick the Chiefs-Texans game

Let’s see what AP staffers (and readers) think about Saturday’s game between Kansas City and Houston.

Before the Week 18 game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos, most of the contributors on our Arrowhead Pride panel picked the Broncos to win — but some did not. So our composite prediction was for a 20-18 Denver victory. That had a whopping 72 points of error from the 38-0 final: it missed the point spread by 36 points, the Broncos’ score by 18 and the Chiefs’ score by 18. By a narrow margin, our readers also expected a Denver win — but just 3% thought it would be a blowout.

In the postseason’s Divisional round, the Chiefs face the Houston Texans on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 8.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

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Nate Christensen (@natech32)

After the Wild Card round, I can understand some concerns about the Texans — but they still have the same problems. Their offense still had issues moving the ball. It took them a botched snap into a 40-yard pass to get any offensive rhythm — and they were gifted 14 points from interceptions. Against a team with Kansas City’s talent, I don’t see that changing from what we saw in Week 16

Chiefs 24, Texans 10

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John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

It’s smart to respect the Texans’ defense. It’s reasonable to be concerned about Houston quarterback C. J. Stroud. And yes… it’s the postseason, so anything can happen. I just don’t think this is the moment where anything will happen.

Chiefs 30, Texans 20

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Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)

The Chiefs have gotten healthy at the perfect time — and with the exception of Rashee Rice, we may finally see the roster as it was intended to look all season. That’s bad news for the rest of the NFL. With the extra time Andy Reid has had to prepare, expect a polished and effective game plan. If Patrick Mahomes gets the protection he needs, the offense should move the ball effortlessly and surpass 30 points. This could be the game where the Chiefs remind everyone why they remain one of the league’s most dangerous teams.

Chiefs 31, Texans 17

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Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

I think the Texans’ defense will be a strong challenge for Kansas City — especially given the momentum Houston will have from last week’s dominant performance. I think this game will come down to the performance of the Chiefs’ defense — especially up front. Kansas City’s pass rush is fresh and healthy — and the Texans’ offensive front is vulnerable. If the Chiefs have a strong game plan to stop Houston’s Nico Collins, I see the defense controlling this game — which will give the offense time to take off in the second half and cruise to the AFC Championship.

Chiefs 27, Texans 17

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Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

The Chiefs are three games away from making history. These games will define a legacy — and the players and coaches know it. They stand on the cusp of immortality. They aren’t going to let the Texans be the reason they came up short. Suppose the Los Angeles Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert had looked more like Patrick Mahomes (and less like Daniel Jones) in the Wild Card round. In that case, Kansas City might be playing their division rivals, rather than quarterback C.J. Stroud and company. Down the stretch, the Houston has looked flat and sloppy. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are the healthiest (and sharpest) they’ve been since the season’s opening weeks. I’m taking Kansas City by double digits.

Chiefs 27, Texans 13

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Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

The Chargers’ complete implosion took the Texans off the hook for their own underwhelming start. Until the first half’s two-minute warning last Saturday, Houston looked very much like the team that lost 31-2 on Christmas Day. Houston is a game opponent, but there’s a reason the team went 1-5 against this year’s playoff field. Expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to devise a game plan that addresses what went wrong when these two teams played last month. I think the defense will once again focus heavily on Nico Collins, betting (probably correctly) that no second receiving option will step up the way Tank Dell did before his unfortunate injury. On offense, the Chiefs should be able to counter the Texans’ fierce pass rush with the quick passing game that seemed in sync when last seen against Pittsburgh — and hopefully, a rested Kareem Hunt will run as he did earlier in the season.

Chiefs 27, Texans 20

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Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

I’ve been stewing on this idea: The playoff version of the Chiefs may not look much like the one we saw in the regular season. It feels like this year — more than ever — Kansas City has given certain players limited regular-season workloads, anticipating players like DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce, Charles Omenihu and Isiah Pacheco will step up in the playoffs. The team has also been working to get healthier, bringing Jaylen Watson, D.J. Humphries and Chris Jones back to the field for the playoff run. When we mix in the disrespect Patrick Mahomes must feel after being passed over for both the Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams, we have the recipe for a three-peat. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Houston is a formidable opponent. The Texans will challenge Kansas City’s offensive line — and its defensive secondary, too. Heck, they’ll probably keep the game close through the end. But, I think the champs do just enough to squeeze by and get into the AFC Championship Game for the seventh straight year. Then they can unleash on the Baltimore Ravens — or the Buffalo Bills.

Chiefs 24, Texans 21

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Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

Borrowing from our weekly poll below, I can only predict three scenarios in this game: the Chiefs in a “close game,” the Texans in a “close game” — or the Chiefs in an “easy win,” which is described as 9 to 14 points. Give me Kansas City in that “easy win.” By clinching the bye week on Christmas Day, the Chiefs were able to get as healthy as they have been all year — and I can’t imagine the Texans’ porous offensive line having success against Kansas City’s well-rested defensive front. Having had three weeks off, I think it will take time for the Chiefs to settle in, so I could see the game being low-scoring and close at halftime (It wouldn’t be a Kansas City playoff game without nerves, right?) But Kansas City will pull away in the third and fourth quarters, with the offense looking as good (and as dangerous) as it has all season. The Texans add a garbage-time touchdown to round out the final score.

Chiefs 27, Texans 14

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With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 27-17.

What do you think?

Nate Christensen turned in the best pick for the Broncos game — although his prediction for a 27-17 Denver win had 56 points of error. Jared Sapp took second place with a 17-10 pick that missed by 62 total points — but choosing the right team moved him back to the top of the standings.

To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.