What can we expect from the Kansas City defense in Saturday’s Divisional round game against Houston?
After sitting out the Wild Card round with the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Kansas City Chiefs open their playoff schedule this Saturday against the Houston Texans on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Let’s consider three defensive questions about Kansas City’s Divisional round game.
1. Can the Chiefs take away Nico Collins on in-breaking routes?
Texans receiver Nico Collins has emerged as one of the best in the NFL over the past two seasons. Collins is one of the best “X” receivers in the league, combining elite size and explosiveness to win on the outside on a variety of routes. He’s fast enough to burn past outside cornerbacks on post routes and go routes but has enough agility to separate on slants, crossing and dig routes over the middle of the field. He’s a winner on contested catches as well.
With offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik (who comes from the Kyle Shanahan tree), they use Collins in a similar way that Shanahan used a Julio Jones or even Brandon Aiyuk. The “X” receiver in that offensive tree runs big dig routes over the middle of the field to generate yards after catch and explosive throws off play-action.
Against the Chargers, Collins had success on these routes. Here is a chart of the routes on Collins’s eight targets on Sunday (via NextGen Stats):
The Chiefs will have to plan for Collins to get targets in this area of the field often. The Chiefs play a lot of Cover 4 on early downs, having four deep zone defenders distribute routes. Slowik will dial up concepts that try to vacate the near-side safety to Collins’ side so they can throw those dig routes behind the vacated safety.
The Chiefs’ cornerbacks will have to do their best to chase and contest the windows, or the safeties could even look to bait Stroud by faking them leaving a zone and then diving underneath the Collins throwing window.
We might also see a large amount of 1-double coverage on Collins, shifting a safety to Collins’s inside to ensure they have leverage on him inside and out. With their lack of other weapons due to injury, the Chiefs should be able to hold up on an island.
2. Can the Chiefs get their pass rush going early and often?
If you’ve watched the Texans this year, you have probably noticed how porous their offensive line is. This goes across the board. Usually, left tackle Laremy Tunsil has played at an All-Pro level, but he’s had a lousy year — to the point where there are games in which he’s an active negative.
Left guard Tytus Howard is one of the worst guards in the league. Center Jarrett Patterson isn’t big and often gets pushed back. Right guard Shaq Mason has looked slow-moving side-to-side in pass protection this year, and now he is injured. At right tackle, rookie Blake Fisher got inserted before the end of the regular season, and he regularly has rough moments.
On top of this, the protections within the scheme haven’t been as good. Stunts, blitzes and different pressures befuddle this offensive line. All year, there have been free runners at CJ Stroud. They’ve never been able to solve the leaks within their protections, which is fodder for someone like Steve Spagnuolo.
The Chiefs’ pass rush had moments where it struggled, particularly in the middle of the season, but it ended the year strong. Playoff football often comes down to getting a pass rush, and against a porous offensive line, I would love to see the Chiefs defensive line as a unit get collective pressure and shut the water off for Houston’s offense.
3. What will the Chiefs do to limit “Glance” routes in the middle of the field?
The Shanahan system of offense that Houston runs incorporates plenty of “Glance” routes. Glance routes are a five-step slant route that typically comes off play action or a run-pass option. After selling a run-fake in which a linebacker or second-level defender steps up, the quarterback puts his foot in the ground and fires the glance over the second-level of the defense. These routes are often quick-hitting and designed to let wide receivers make one guy miss and pick up huge chunks in the passing game.
Houston and Stroud have made a living off throwing these routes for two years, and the Chiefs must be prepared for it. The linebackers will have to be careful not to overpursue their run fit to keep some depth within the coverage, and the Chiefs safeties would be wise to potentially fire downhill the second they see a wide receiver release inside to contest the throwing window. We could also see the Chiefs rotate into shells that put defenders in the hot spots that these throws go to.
One benefit the Chiefs have is that they don’t need their linebackers to be overaggressive in the run fit to stop the run. Houston’s run game is almost nonexistent, so linebackers can feel better about slowly flowing to the ball and tackling rather than screaming downhill. I don’t trust Houston’s offensive line to move Mike Pennel or Chris Jones, so the linebackers should keep depth to ensure that Stroud can’t hit these throws off an RPO and then rally.