The Chiefs’ 3 biggest offensive questions against the Bills

What kind of issues should we expect when Kansas City hosts Buffalo on Sunday?

Following the Kansas City Chiefs’ 23-14 Divisional round victory over the Houston Texans on Saturday, the team is once again headed to a postseason showdown with the Buffalo Bills — this time for the AFC championship.

Here are my three biggest offensive questions about the Chiefs in this matchup.

1. What will the Chiefs do when the Bills spy Patrick Mahomes?

For years, Buffalo has used three pass rushers against Kansas City — and then assigned one of its linebackers to spy on Mahomes.

The goal has been to limit the number of escape hatches available to the quarterback when he’s on the move. The idea is to squeeze Mahomes into the pocket as much as possible — and if he tries to bail to either side, a fast linebacker is available to chase him. In each of the Bills’ regular-season wins over the Chiefs over the past three years, this strategy has worked.

The Bills did the same thing against the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson in their Divisional round matchup. While Jackson was sometimes able to find some creases, Buffalo was largely able to keep him in the pocket, preventing him from making explosive plays with his legs.

So a similar approach against Mahomes seems likely — and the Chiefs must be ready for it.

Such an approach will give Kansas City one advantage: if the Bills rush only three, the Chiefs will have more time to make downfield throws. This also means wide receivers will have to create separation more often, because Mahomes won’t be able to buy as much time by scrambling; Andy Reid will have to open some downfield shots through scheme. Still, I think Kansas City’s passing game will have more opportunities for explosive plays.

When the teams played in Week 11, Buffalo played man coverage behind its pass rush, thereby trusting the spy to limit Mahomes while defensive backs had their backs turned. So I think this will be a good time to get Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown going underneath — and test the Bills’ speed in the secondary.

2. Can the Chiefs hold up against the Bills’ edge rushers?

When these teams last played, Kansas City had bad tackles arrayed against this pass-rushing strategy. Playing at left tackle, Wanya Morris was unable to stop Gregory Rousseau. He was consistently being pushed back into the pocket — or allowing Rousseau easy angles to turn the corner. On the right, Von Miller was compressing the pocket against Jawaan Taylor. Under these circumstances, Buffalo could prevent Mahomes from getting outside the pocket, step up into it or drift back to get an angle.

So the Chiefs will have to do better than they did in Week 11 — or even in the Divisional round against Houston. On Saturday, we saw some of Joe Thuney’s warts while playing at tackle. While he plays with good technique — an improvement over what Kansas City’s other left tackles have done this year — he is still giving up length and size to every edge rusher he faces. And we are still seeing inconsistent pass protection from Taylor, too.

There is good news, though: Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter don’t play for the Bills. While Rousseau (and Buffalo’s other edges) are solid, they will be easier to handle than the Texans’ pass rushers. I am worried about Rousseau’s length against Thuney, but the Chiefs should feel better about their ability to protect Mahomes.

3. How much airspace will Travis Kelce get in this game?

In Week 11, Kelce had two catches for eight yards. On Sunday, Kansas City will need more than that from its superstar tight end.

In the last matchup, the Bills limited him by frequently using cornerbacks in man coverage, disrupting him at the line of scrimmage. At 35, Kelce can’t separate himself from corners as well as he did earlier in his career. These days, Kelce tends to throw his body into cornerbacks as a way to generate separation — but against longer corners like the Bills’ Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford, that will be challenging.

So Reid needs to design plays where Kelce can beat man coverage more easily. He should scheme Kelce into stacks and bunches, giving him as many free releases as possible — because when Kelce feels space around him, he can always create separation. I would also like to see Kelce in some drag routes underneath, where a defender must trail him.

If the Bills want to play zone coverage — like Houston did on Saturday and Buffalo did in last season’s postseason matchup — we know Kelce will torch them. So I would imagine that Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott will opt for a man-based coverage plan. It will be up to the Chiefs to help Kelce beat that plan — or depend on their other receivers to take advantage.