What can we expect from the Kansas City offense in Saturday’s Divisional round game against Houston?
After sitting out the Wild Card round with the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Kansas City Chiefs open their playoff schedule this Saturday against the Houston Texans on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Let’s consider three offensive questions about Kansas City’s Divisional round game.
1. Can the Chiefs once again handle the Texans’ pass rush?
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The last time these teams played, Kansas City handled Houston’s pass rushers well — but they will still be a threat in this matchup.
The Texans’ Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are among the league’s best edge-rushing duos. Anderson brings some of the NFL’s best speed-to-power tools. Hunter is a jack-of-all-trades pass rusher who can complement Anderson’s ability to crush the pocket. Those two can wreck games — like they did against the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday — but Houston also has solid interior rushers. Well into his 30s, Denico Autry continues to be a productive player.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans also does a wonderful job designing pressure packages for these players. Using stunts, simulated pressures and blitzes, Ryans can exploit an offense’s weaknesses. Against Los Angeles, Ryans ran a variety of tackle-end stunts in which Anderson or Hunter looped inside against the Chargers’ weak offensive interior to get quick pressures.
In their Week 16 game, the Chiefs handled most of Houston’s pressure well, keeping a firm pocket from which quarterback Patrick Mahomes could work. My biggest worry is that Kansas City probable tackles — Joe Thuney and Jawaan Taylor — don’t have great bases as offensive tackles. That can be an issue against Anderson and Hunter. While Thuney did as well as he could against Anderson, there were still times when his lack of length (and mass) was a problem; Anderson could move him backward with a bull rush.
On Saturday, Kansas City will need a sound protection plan — and another good day from its offensive linemen.
2. Can the Chiefs unlock their play-action game?
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Ryans comes from the San Francisco 49ers’ pipeline of NFL defensive coordinators, so the Chiefs have plenty of experience playing against this kind of defense. They often attack this sort of scheme with play-action passes from under center.
This is harder to do against a team like San Francisco because of linebacker Fred Warner’s coverage ability — but Houston doesn’t have a player like him at the second level. The Texans’ linebackers tend to bite on run fakes; they’re focused on getting downhill to make splash plays. This can create play-action opportunities over the middle of the field — particularly for tight ends.
In Week 16, Kansas City didn’t need to use much play-action in order to move the ball — but on Saturday, we might see more of it.
3. Will Ryans change his defensive game plan?
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In the last matchup, Houston did what it does against most opponents: play a lot of Quarters coverage on early downs to limit explosive plays over the top — and get its safeties screaming downhill in the run fits. In obvious passing downs, the Texans primarily relied on man coverage, mixing some five or six-man pressures in with the defense’s fearsome front four.
Later calling Week 16’s game his best of the season, Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid shredded Houston’s defensive scheme by using motion, formation stacks and bunches and switch releases. This gave his wide receivers a schematic advantage against Houston’s man coverage. With the speed of his receivers, Mahomes needed only the tiniest bit of separation to get the ball to open targets. This quick passing game also helped negate the Texans’ pass rush.
Still, since this is Ryans’ typical defensive approach, it’s reasonable to expect more of the same on Saturday.
But what if he decides to change it?
He’s previously demonstrated an ability to craft effective game plans for specific teams. The most famous example might be one he used against the Green Bay Packers in 2021, while he was the 49ers’ defensive coordinator. Green Bay’s offense was built around the connection between quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wideout Davante Adams. So Ryans played Cover 1-Double on Adams, allowing him to get double-teams on him all over the field. This took the Packers’ offense by surprise, throwing it into disarray.
There’s a chance Ryans could look back on the Week 16 game and decide he can’t play that way against Kansas City again. To win, the Texans must create a low-scoring game in which they can rely on their defense. So we could see Ryans use more zone coverages to keep the secondary’s eyes on Mahomes, trusting its speed to rally and tackle.
If that’s the way Houston goes, I would expect a big day for tight end Travis Kelce, who could pick the secondary apart by finding holes and manipulating its zone drops. Kelce doesn’t have as much success against man coverage as we used to see — but against zone coverages, his intelligence (and feel for space) can help him win.
This is exactly why the Chiefs use an opening play script. It’s specifically designed to reveal exactly what they can expect from the opposing defense. Once Kansas City has this information, Reid can tailor his play-calls to beat whatever approach the Texans are using.