Two of Kansas City’s important contributors are soon expected to be returning from their injuries.
In a season where the Kansas City Chiefs have played relatively well on both sides of the ball (and winning many games), it’s been hard not to be pleased about how the team has been doing week-to-week — even though many of the wins have been close ones.
But injuries have been one of the season’s downsides. Hollywood Brown, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, Jaylen Watson, Jared Wiley, Jody Fortson and Harrison Butker are among those on the team’s Reserve/Injured list. Charles Omenihu has been on Reserve/PUP all season.
Rice, Wiley and Fortson are expected to miss the rest of the season. Brown and Watson could be back in time for some postseason action. Butker is expected to be back before the end of the regular season — and Pacheco and Omenihu have already been designated to return. Their practice windows opened last week. Over the next two weeks, both are expected to return to action.
They couldn’t be getting healthy at a better time.
Why the Chiefs need Isiah Pacheco
The Chiefs have largely managed without Pacheco. Since the running back went on IR in Week 3, Kansas City has been 11th in expected points added (EPA) per run and first in success rate while rushing the ball. The team has produced just six explosive runs (15 or more yards) during that time. Only the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams had fewer. Kareem Hunt — who has started six games in Pacheco’s absence — has had just two explosive runs. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have each had two during Pacheco’s absence.
Still, Hunt has been very good for the team. While he no longer has a second gear, his first gear (and his vision and size) have played a big role in keeping the Chiefs ahead of the sticks. Hunt’s success in early downs has often left the team with four or fewer yards to gain on third down — which has opened up more of the team’s playbook.
But Kansas City has been riding Hunt hard. He’s amassed a whopping 139 carries over seven games — an average of 19.9 per game. That’s second only to the Houston Texans’ Joe Mixon. As the season has progressed, Hunt may be losing some of the tread on his tires, which is reflected in Kansas City’s advanced rushing statistics.
Category | Wks 3-9 |
Wks 10-11 |
EPA Per Rush | -0.016 | -0.127 |
Rank | 10th | 18th |
Rushing Success Rate | 49.2% | 38.2% |
Rank | 1st | 20th |
From RBSDM.com
Not all of this is Hunt’s fault — in the last two games, the Chiefs have faced better run defenses — but as the carries accumulate, it does feel like he’s losing some juice. That’s what we’d expect from a 29-year-old running back. He’s provided a significant boost to the offense — but at his age, his workload is unsustainable.
Fortunately, Pacheco will be able to reduce Hunt’s workload. I believe that down-to-down, Hunt is better — but Pacheco’s ability to break big runs will help fill some of the offense’s gaps. I think Kansas City would benefit by using Hunt as the short-yardage back, leaving the rest to Pacheco.
Why the Chiefs need Charles Omenihu
Over the past few weeks, I think it’s become more and more evident that the Chiefs’ pass rush just isn’t very good. At every opportunity, teams are double-teaming defensive tackle Chris Jones so he won’t take over the game. No Kansas City player is punishing them for that.
George Karlaftis has been in a slump. For weeks, he has been ineffective in one-on-one matchups. Mike Danna has taken step back. He’s barely getting any pressure or winning his one-on-ones. Felix Anudike-Uzomah is giving his team nothing as a pass rusher; he and Malik Herring are only being used as rotational run defenders. Joshua Uche was brought in to bring some juice to the pass rush — but so far, he hasn’t been winning. Aside from interior lineman Tershawn Wharton, nobody is stepping up to help Jones.
This would be less of a problem if Watson was playing. Without him, it’s been harder for the defense to play Cover 0 and blitz. Teams are targeting Nazeeh Johnson. Trent McDuffie continues to play well — but behind him, the cornerback group is thin. And it is struggling. Only McDuffie and Johnson are seeing the field. In nickel and dime packages, the defense is playing additional safeties.
And while these safeties are better than Joshua Williams or Chris Roland-Wallace, only Chamarri Conner is good in man coverage. Safeties Bryan Cook, Justin Reid and Jaden Hicks struggle to stay tight to receivers and work through traffic — so teams use tight ends and slot receivers to attack them.
So Kansas City can’t win with four pass rushers — or hold up in coverage when it blitzes. Omenihu will help.
It’s easy to forget — but in 2023, he was a game-changer. Omenihu was able to produce while playing on the outside or the inside. This helped Jones win from multiple spots and added versatility to the defensive line. Even Omenihu’s batted passes were a significant factor. Hopefully, getting him back will help players like Karlaftis and Danna become better versions of themselves — and the Chiefs’ defense become less dependent on blitzes.
Both players will help the team, but which will have a bigger impact? From whom does Kansas City need a larger contribution? When the season ends, which player will we say was a difference-maker during the stretch run?
For now, let’s just be thankful the Chiefs are getting reinforcements.