The case for why Kansas City is sitting especially pretty this year heading into the NFL Draft.
The goal of any NFL team is to build a sustained contender that gives you the most chances to win a Super Bowl championship (or multiple championships). Teams build their rosters with the intention of prolonging their windows, and with enough chances, you eventually will have the right bounces to get over the top.
However, the NFL builds competitive balance checks to ensure that keeping a window open is as difficult as possible. Mechanisms like the salary cap and reverse draft ordering limit teams’ abilities to keep their windows open for as long as they would desire.
Reverse draft ordering is the most effective way of achieving competitive balance. History tells us that with the NFL Draft, the talent pool starts to drop off after pick 15 to 20 (on average). This means that contenders typically struggle to get in range to take blue-chip players at premium positions.
The Chiefs have encountered this issue since 2018, when their contending window first started. By being one of the last four teams remaining annually, they’ve rarely been in good enough draft position to get in the range to select a blue-chip prospect.
The last two drafts are good examples of this.
The 2024 NFL Draft
Going into the draft, the consensus need for the Chiefs was left tackle. It was an incredibly strong tackle class with Joe Alt, J.C. Latham, Tailese Fuaga, Troy Fautanu, Amarius Mims and Olu Fashanu as first-round picks. The problem? All were gone by pick 20. With the Chiefs at No. 32, they would’ve had to surrender significant draft capital to trade up. The Chiefs were selecting from a limited talent pool after the first round, which led to Kingsley Suamataia. He has not shown to be a solution at left tackle.
The 2023 NFL Draft
2023’s roster didn’t have as many precise needs, but players that would’ve been good fits were unavailable. Wide receivers such as Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers and Jaxon Smith-Njigba went 20-23. Offensive tackle Anton Harrison went 27. By the end of the first round, the Chiefs were left looking at defensive end as the best convergence of need and talent. They took Felix Anudike-Uzomah at No. 31, which hasn’t worked so far. To add insult to injury, Nolan Smith — a better prospect — went a single selection earlier.
The 2022 NFL Draft
The counterexample to 2023 and 2024 is the 2022 draft. The Chiefs used the draft capital from the Tyreek Hill trade to move up for cornerback Trent McDuffie, who was one of the best prospects in the class at a position of need. By wielding a large bag of picks, paying a premium to move up and get a blue-chip player was justifiable.
Unfortunately, that’s not a reality Kansas City can rely on. They can’t go into every year with 10-plus picks and five to six top-100 picks. They either have to make aggressive trade-ups that sacrifice depth and generally don’t work out, or they have to wait for the talent pool to dissipate around them. From a drafting standpoint, these are not ideal circumstances.
The 2025 NFL Draft
This year, I have come away feeling optimistic about the Chiefs’ draft positioning as it relates to both the first round and top-100 as a whole. As of today, I would consider the three biggest needs on the Chiefs to be tackle, running back and defensive tackle in some order.
At all three positions, I think the Chiefs are in a great spot:
Offensive tackle
Of the three positions I listed, tackle isn’t as good a spot for me. That said, I do think there are six players that the Chiefs could draft in the first round at offensive tackle:
- Will Campbell, LSU
- Armand Membou, Missouri
- Josh Simmons, Ohio State
- Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota
- Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas
- Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon
If the Chiefs drafted any of these players or made slight trade-ups for them, they would earn an “A” grade from me. With the Chiefs having Tennessee’s third-round pick at 66, they have some extra ammunition to trade up.
My worry is that all six may be gone by the point where the Chiefs trade up. We saw this last year; tackles are premium positions that teams won’t wait on. I’m more optimistic that one of these guys falls in the mid-20s just because I find this class to be worse, but it’s worth noting that.
I’m pessimistic about a single tackle past Round 1 being a starter, so if they feel they need one, they will have to hope one falls.
Running back
If the Chiefs strike out at tackle, I think they are in great positions at running back and defensive tackle. With running back, this class is incredibly deep across the board.
If we’re talking first round, the only player I’d consider is North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton (assuming Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is selected). At pick 31, that’s not excellent positioning. However, the Chiefs could take another position and get a good start running back later, filling multiple needs and getting value.
Here are my favorite running backs for Day 2:
Round 2/Round 3 (Pick 66 via TEN):
- Damien Martinez, Miami
- Treyveon Henderson, Ohio State
- Cam Skattebo, Arizona State
- Kaleb Johnson, Iowa
Round 3 (Pick 95):
- Devin Neal, Kansas
- D.J. Giddens, Kansas State
- R.J. Harvey, UCF
Defensive tackle
If you made me bet today what the Chiefs take at 31 or in a slight trade-up, it would be a defensive tackle. Like running back, it’s a position that is filled with elite talent across the top 100. The Chiefs are so thin in their defensive tackle room that they can afford to take any body type as well and go for the best option.
Here are my favorite options for the first two days of the draft:
Round 1
- Derrick Harmon, Oregon
- Walter Nolen, Ole Miss
- Tyleik Williams, Ohio State
Round 2/Round 3 (Pick 66 via TEN):
- T.J. Sanders, South Carolina
- Shemar Turner, Texas A&M
- Deone Walker, Kentucky
Round 3 (Pick 95)
- Darius Alexander, Toledo
- Alfred Collins, Texas
- Joshua Farmer, Florida State
The bottom line
Other than tackle, I think the Chiefs are in a great spot to mix the order of their positions based on selection. If they want a running back at 31, they can find a defensive tackle or tight end later (and vice versa). This is ideal for drafting.
The flexibility that general manager Brett Veach has will allow the Chiefs to have a stronger draft. The needs for the Chiefs align almost perfectly with the strengths of the 2025 class.