What we have learned about the Big 12 so far
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…
It has been a couple of Dickensian weeks around the conference since our last roundup. While it’s still too early to make any concrete statements, a quick look at results from Week 3 suggests at least one thing: the state of Utah might be the center of power in the new Big 12.
West Virginia (2-2, 1-0) and Arizona State (3-1, 0-1) were both off this past week. As for the rest, let’s just get right to it, shall we?
BYU (5-0, 2-0) vs Baylor (2-3, 0-2)
I’m pretty sure BYU didn’t play in Week 4, or at least not in a game I actually want to think about.
Afterwards, the Cougars found themselves ranked in the AP Top 25, clocking in at #22, the team’s first appearance in a national poll since way back in 2022. BYU took that shiny new ranking into Waco to take on a tough Baylor team, and somehow ended up holding on to 34-28, when an interception by Cougars safety Crew Wakley at 0:59 ended the Bears’ furious comeback attempt.
That win means BYU is the league’s only 5-0 team, and if you had given me that bet three weeks ago, I wouldn’t have taken it.
For Baylor, this was the latest in a series of heartbreaking losses that have put the Bears’ entire season in limbo. The week before, Baylor had lost to Colorado 38-31 in overtime, when the Bears’ RB Dominic Richardson fumbled the ball at the goal line to end the game.
Head coach Dave Aranda is almost certainly on the hot seat now. He’s a fundamentally decent person and a great football mind, but he’s also deeply introverted and a stickler for the rules, which may be costing the program some talent in the NIL and transfer portal era.
Colorado (4-1, 2-0) vs UCF (4-1, 1-1)
As noted above, in week 4, Colorado beat Baylor 38-31 in overtime in a wild game that saw the Buffs tie the game in regulation on a 43-yard Hail Mary from Shedeur Sanders to LaJohnTay Wester. Interestingly, the Buffs were commemorating he 30th anniversary of the immortal 1994 Stewart-to-Westbrook Hail Mary play, so the flashy ending to this game seemed on point.
Colorado followed up that win with another one, this time an emphatic 48-21 beatdown of UCF that did not require any last minute heroics. This was, of course, the usual Travis Hunter highlight reel of a game, where the dual threat Hunter caught a touchdown pass and then later snagged an interception (with bonus Heisman pose).
For UCF, this was a game that brought the Knights back down to earth after a great 4-0 start that saw the team briefly top the Big 12 after a huge come-from-behind 35-34 victory over TCU. Then UCF got to host Prime in the prime Fox Big Noon slot and promptly fell on their faces. Maybe the Knights were overwhelmed by the occasion or maybe they’re still a bit short on the sort of Power 4 talent needed for sustained success in the Big 12. Only time will tell.
Cincinnati (3-2, 1-1) vs Texas Tech (4-1, 2-0)
Texas Tech began the season on shaky ground. A near loss to Abilene Christian was followed by an actual road loss to Wazzu. But since then, the Red Raiders have been pretty good and have two back-to-back conference wins to show for it. The latest win was a 44-41 decision over Cincinnati where Tech escaped with a win when the Bearcats’ kicker Nathan Hawks missed the game-tying field goal wide right.
It was also a banner day for the Raiders’ Tahj Brooks who ran for 172 yards and two scores and is currently the Big 12’s rushing leader in yards per game.
For the Bearcats, it was a disappointing loss, especially after the 34-0 win over Houston, the program’s first Big 12 win at home. But what really stood out was the 10-second runoff that cost Cincinnati a chance at a possible touchdown to end the game.
Hot seat alert: it’s only Year 2 of the Scott Satterfield experiment in Cincinnati, but he may already be on the way out.
Iowa State (4-0, 1-0) vs Houston (1-4, 0-2)
There is almost no hype around Iowa State this year, but the Cyclones are—quietly but deliberately—still undefeated and tied for the lead in the Big 12. A routine 20-0 win over Houston did not feature much excitement, just a steady effort from QB Rocco Becht and another 100-yard game from Abu Sama III.
WIth the win, his 57th, Matt Campbell became Iowa State’s winningest football coach. Around these parts, we may not quite understand the hype around the Clones’ head man, but there’s no dispute that he’s changed the trajectory of that program and heightened fan expectations.
Houston is headed in the opposite direction, however. This is the Cougars’ first 1-4 start since 2004, and it came on the back of another shutout loss to Cincinnati, the first consecutive shutout losses for the program since 1994. So yeah, this Houston team may be generationally bad, but the talent is there and you have to believe Willie Fritz will finally put it all together somehow.
Arizona (3-1, 1-1) vs Utah (3-1, 0-1)
For much of the long offseason before the new Big 12 kicked off, Utah was the favorite to win the conference and make the expanded College Football Playoff. Through the first four weeks, the Utes were perfect, with two easy wins over in-state teams sandwiched around a defensive slugfest against Baylor.
Much of Utah’s success was predicated on keeping QB Cam Rising healthy, but alas. He injured his throwing hand in the Week 2 win over Baylor and has not played in a game since. Though backup Isaac Wilson, a freshman, has played well enough in relief, he was not quite ready for Big 12 After Dark. Although he marched the Utes down the field early in the game, the offense stalled out in the red zone repeatedly. Trying to engineer a comeback in the second half, Wilson threw two picks, the second of which ended the game, a 23-10 upset win for Arizona.
The Wildcats had a whole off week to stew over the loss to K-State and to fix the offense before the team’s Big 12 opener. Determined not to be cowed by Utah’s defense and to let Noah Fifita loose, Arizona turned playcalling duties over to assistant Matt Adkins. The result was 197 yards through the air for Fifita with two scores and another 169 yards on the ground for the Wildcats.
TCU (3-2, 1-1) vs Kansas (1-4, 0-2)
The one certainty in this game was that one team was going to leave Arrowhead Stadium with a Big 12 win. Unfortunately for our cousins down the Kaw, that team was TCU, a 38-27 winner over Kansas. The Horned Frogs had over 500 yards of total offense in the game, including 356 yards passing and two touchdowns for QB Josh Hoover.
That offensive explosion helped gloss over some of TCU’s other problems in the game, including three turnovers and defensive struggles in the first half that saw the Frogs give up two rushing touchdowns. But with TCU about to renew its old rivalry with Houston, winning ugly was exactly what Sonny Dykes’ team needed.
Meanwhile, the season has gone pear-shaped for Kansas. The Jayhawks began the season ranked as high as #22 in the AP poll. After a 1-4 start, that lofty ranking and the preseason hype that went with are distant memories. Is this just a regression to the mean for the program? Is it because Jalon Daniels has lost a step with all the injuries? Or is it because Lance Leipold scared off a competent offensive coordinator in the offseason? Why can’t the Jayhawks finish games?
Nobody knows. But who cares? It’s almost basketball season.
And finally, last but definitely not least…
Oklahoma State (3-2, 0-2) vs. Kansas State (4-1, 1-1)
The Pokes began the season as one of the favorites to win the Big 12, and a quick 3-0 start (including a thrilling win over Arkansas) underlined that prediction. And then the wheels started to come off. At home against Utah in Week 4, the Pokes’ vaunted offense just never got untracked, leading to a 22-19 loss to the Utes. Alan Bowman’s spirited comeback in the fourth quarter proved to be too little too late.
Things didn’t improve for Oklahoma State in their next game. The Pokes lost 42-20 to Kansas State, giving up five touchdowns to Avery Johnson in the process. The interesting factoid here is the Utes and the Wildcats managed to shut down RB Ollie Gordon, last season’s Doak Walker winner. He had 76 yards against Kansas State and just 42 yards against Utah. Is Gordon just a step slower than he was last season?
It’s not clear where the Pokes go from here. A win over West Virginia would go a long way to salvaging the season, if only because the rest of Oklahoma State’s schedule breaks in the Pokes favor.
It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done…