Drew breaks down the Arizona offense before the Friday night showdown.
Arizona Offense
Quarterback
Quarterback
Here’s something you don’t see every day: Arizona puts their quarterback (blue arrow) under center—not just on short-yardage downs. They also play out of the spread, but at this point, I’ve covered that formation a few hundred times.
What’s interesting is that this was once referred to as a “pro style” offense. Now, the majority of pro teams put their quarterback in the shotgun. This is an example of the college game changing the pro game.
Having the quarterback under center opens things up in the run game. The back, instead of getting the ball either at a dead stop or in a “mesh” situation with the quarterback, moves forward at the snap and gets the handoff in stride. I’ll talk more about that in the running back section, but in terms of the quarterback, it makes play-action passes significantly more effective, mainly because it’s easier for the quarterback to hide the ball. I also think the safeties have a tendency to react more because the running back is carrying out the fake with speed instead of just sort of standing next to the quarterback.
Player to Watch
This game comes down to Arizona star quarterback Noah Fifita. I’m going to throw a name out there, and I’m not saying it’s a 1-to-1 comparison, but I see a good bit of Drew Brees in Fifita.
At 5’10”, 188, Noah doesn’t look like a college quarterback, but all he does is complete passes and make plays. In fact, Fifita’s insane 72.4 completion percentage last season is better than anything Drew Brees offered up during his time at Purdue (granted, a different era of college football). Brees didn’t have a talent like Tetairoa McMillan to throw the ball to during his time in West Lafayette, and that changes things a little, but in terms of playing style, think Drew Brees.
Fifita doesn’t have the strongest arm, but it’s good enough, and he makes up for it with pinpoint accuracy. That doesn’t mean he just puts the ball on his receiver; it means he puts the ball on his receiver in the perfect place. He’s also adept at throwing his target open instead of accepting the coverage and looking elsewhere. Sometimes the coverage on McMillan is perfect until Fifita throws the ball, and then the pass leads him to open space.
In terms of mobility, he’s mobile in the pocket and adept at escaping pressure but isn’t much of a runner. When he scrambles, he scrambles to throw, not to run. If the defense gets caught peeking in the backfield, he won’t hesitate to dump it over their heads (I’m looking at you, Kansas State safeties). If there is a play to be made, Fifita is going to try and make it with his arm, even if it looks like he has room to run.
Kansas State needs to get pressure up the middle. That’s where his stature hurts. He’s good at avoiding pressure off the edge and getting into open air to make a throw. He struggles when the rush is in his face because he can’t throw over the top of it like most quarterbacks. This might be a game where Uso makes a play simply by getting one of his massive mitts up and deflecting a pass. The linebackers and safeties need to be on high alert because a deflected pass could swing this game into the good ‘Cats’ favor.
Offensive Line
Northern Arizona managed to get to Fifita twice in the opener, with both sacks coming off a blitz. In their second game, New Mexico couldn’t get to him, despite a couple of plays where it looked like they had him dead to rights.
Overall, the Wildcat offensive line has been solid, if not good, in the first two games, but they’ve yet to face a team like Kansas State. They’ve done well so far, rushing for close to 200 yards a game and limiting pressure on Fifita, but New Mexico and Northern Arizona ain’t K-State. Look for the good ‘Cats to throw some stunts and twists at this Arizona line to try and spread out the interior in hopes of squeezing a linebacker through one of the A-gaps.
Player to Watch
Left guard Wenell Moe Jr. is the talent. He was named AP Second-Team All-Pac-12 last season as a redshirt freshman. He’s not who I’m watching—he’s really good, and at 6’2”, 330+, he’s hard to miss even if you’re not looking at him.
I’m focusing my attention on starting left tackle Rhino Taypa’atoutai. First off, that’s one hell of a name. Next, he’s a redshirt freshman making his first start in hostile territory. I anticipate Coach Klanderman shifting the defensive line pre-snap and forcing Rhino to figure out which guy to block. At 6’5”, 310, Rhino is up to the physical task, but the good ‘Cats are about to make him think a bit more than the first two opponents.
Kansas State needs to get pressure on Fifita. If they can’t, this game is going to be tough to win without scoring 30+ points. Based on what I’ve seen from the offense, I’m not sure they can win a shootout against a good offense yet. They have to find a way through this massive Arizona line; otherwise, the secondary will get picked apart.
Running Backs
As I mentioned above, Arizona puts the quarterback under center more than most teams. That gives their running back a head start, both physically and mentally. It’s easier to see holes open up, and it’s easier to hit them at full speed. When the ‘Zona backs hit a crease, they hit it with conviction. Arm tackles in the hole aren’t going to cut it tonight. The second and third-level defenders have to square up the back, hit him, and wrap; otherwise, every run is going to finish with an extra 2 or 3 yards because of momentum alone.
They will occasionally use a back in the passing game. They’ve combined for 6 receptions and 40 yards over the first two contests. The thing that concerns me the most is a K-State linebacker or safety cutting a back loose after a play-action fake and Fifita finding him wide open 30 yards downfield. They haven’t used it yet, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see it tonight.
Player to Watch
Quali Conley is off to a fast start. He only has 17 carries, but he’s averaging 6.6 yards an attempt. I’m especially concerned about him gutting the K-State defense by controlling the A-gap (on either side of the nose tackle). When they’re lined up under center, it puts more pressure on the interior of the line. Conley broke off a couple of nice interior runs against New Mexico, where the center walled off the nose tackle, giving Conley a running start at one of the A-gaps.
If he gets through the A-gap untouched, the run could end up going a long way because he’s hitting the second level faster than most linebackers are accustomed to, and it messes up angles. The good ‘Cats need a great day from Ilalio and Uso in the heart of the defensive line tonight. Allowing Arizona to run up the middle opens up their devastating play-action passing game because it starts drawing one, if not two, safeties into the box. When that happens, McMillan ends up in single coverage, and he’s almost impossible to defend.
Tight End
I’m sure the tight end room lit up watching the Kansas State tape from the Tulane game. The defense couldn’t find the Green Wave’s 6’5”, 240-pound tight end, and it cost them 2 touchdowns. The guy didn’t even have to work that hard to find the end zone.
If you look at the screenshot, you’ll notice Arizona with two tight ends lined up next to each other. On this play, the in-line tight end (blue triangle) releases, and the move tight end (yellow triangle) steps up and takes on the blocking assignment. When Tulane put two tight ends next to each other on the line, the Kansas State defense collapsed. Arizona uses the two-tight formation a good bit, especially under center. The good ‘Cats have to be better at picking out the eligible receivers. I know the Tulane game was rough, but it exposed some issues in the back end of the defense without putting an L in the ledger.
I anticipate Arizona trying the same thing Tulane did until Kansas State proves they can both identify and cover the tight end.
Player to Watch
Keyan Burnett is their big-play tight end. At 6’6”, 250, he’s a tough matchup for a safety, but he’s faster than most linebackers. They don’t throw it to him often (3 receptions on the season), but when he does get the ball, it tends to go a long way.
One of the reasons that happens is that Arizona does a good job of disguising when he’s blocking and when he’s running a route. He’s averaging almost 17 yards a completion because he’ll block on 10 straight plays and then slip a block and find himself wide open. The Kansas State linebackers and secondary were not good in terms of eye discipline last game.
Arizona saw the same film I watched. Look for them to try and sneak Burnett off the line in hopes of another K-State blown coverage.
Wide Receiver
Normally, I talk about the entire position group, but in this case, I’m skipping straight to…
Player to Watch
Tetairoa McMillan may be the toughest cover in college football at an athletic 6’5”, 215, and Arizona feeds him the ball. As a sophomore in 2023, he was named AP Second Team All-Pac-12 and AP Third-Team All-American. In his first game of the 2024 season against New Mexico, he was named the AP National Player of the Week after pulling down 10 receptions for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns.
The good news is that he only had 2 receptions and 11 yards against Northern Arizona. I think that’s more a product of Arizona not focusing on the task at hand as opposed to Northern Arizona having any sort of special game plan.
I’ll give the coaching staff a hint:
Double Tetairoa McMillan all over the field.
He’s a bad matchup for Parrish and Garber, but short of having a guy like Josh Brents (or Will Lee when his head was right) on the roster, he’s a bad matchup for every team. Fifita will put the ball where only McMillan can make a play if he’s in single coverage, and that means tossing it up and letting him high point the ball. He’s got at least 5 inches on either K-State corner, and he can jump out of the gym. Even when he’s covered from the neck down, he’s open.
He’s an NFL receiver playing college ball, and the defense needs to treat him like an NFL receiver and bracket him with over/under coverage all game. That means every time he goes up to catch a lob, he’s got the corner in front and the safety behind him. He still might come down with the ball, but he’s not making a house call.
Things get even tougher in the red zone, and honestly, good luck. My advice is to not let Arizona have many red zone opportunities because they have the best red zone receiver in the nation, and it’s not a close race. It’s going to take a total team effort, starting up front with pressure on Fifita, to contain McMillan.
He’s got the Friday night TV slot all to himself and will be looking to announce his presence on the national scene after flying a little under the radar because of the Pac-12 drama from last season. Arizona is going to get him the ball every way they can. He’ll line up at all three wide receiver positions. I’m especially concerned when he moves into the slot. When that happens, Arizona is looking to hit a deep seam route down the hash or a deep corner route to the pylon.
If K-State holds to their defensive philosophy, he’ll have Sigle in man coverage when he shifts to the slot. Love Sigle; he’s played well so far this season, but that’s a huge ask.
In Summary
Arizona isn’t a tough offense to figure out. They have a crafty quarterback, a stud wide receiver, and a running back with some juice behind a massive offensive line. Look for them to try and establish the run early and then hit McMillan over the top once they get a safety to bite on the play fake.
Kansas State struggled last week against Tulane’s passing offense, and now they have the most explosive quarterback/wide receiver combination in the nation to defend. We’ll see how much this coaching staff was able to fix in less than a week.
Simply Put:
Arizona needs to run the ball and hit deep play-action passes to McMillan in single coverage.
Kansas State needs to stop the run with their front seven to keep McMillan from getting single coverage in the play-action game.
Whichever team executes their plan should win this game.