Like it or not, we’re playing this game
Kansas is a 7 seed, which means no easy path forward in the tournament. That’s the bad news. The good news is that you can make a case for Arkansas being about as good a 1st round matchup as KU could have reasonably hoped for, especially with Arkansas missing one of their top players in junior wing Adou Thiero.
Kansas’ performance against teams that play slow, defense-first basketball, like Cincinnati and Houston, suggests that this style of team is a better matchup than a run and gun offensive squad. Arkansas doesn’t play slow, but they do rely on defense while struggling at times on the offensive end. Torvik ranks their defense a solid 21st nationally, while the offense barely cracks the top 100 at 84th.
This time of year, the last thing you want to hear about your team’s opponent is that they shoot and make a lot of threes. In this respect, Jayhawk fans can relax a little, with the Razorbacks shooting few threes (264th in 3P rate) and hitting very few (203rd at 33.3%). While that’s encouraging, it should be noted that Arkansas makes up for some of that with strong shooting inside the arc, where they hit over 54% of their shots. According to Torvik’s numbers, 64% of their twos qualify as either dunks or close twos, so this is a team looking to score in the paint. Fortunately, Kansas is a top 20 2 point defense, ranking 18th nationally, meaning Arkansas’ offensive strength will butt heads with the thing this Kansas team arguably does best.
While that’s mostly good news, the bad news is Kansas may have trouble scoring. Even more than usual. Arkansas’ team block rate is top 10 nationally. Given that, it’s hard to see anyone but Hunter Dickinson finding much luck around the basket in this one. Still, it should be mentioned that despite the blocked shots, Arkansas’ 2 point defense is just ok overall, coming in 81st by allowing teams to make 48.5% of their shots inside the arc. The injured Thiero is also one of their top defenders, which could allow for a few more scoring opportunities than the Razorbacks would generally allow.
Prediction
Maybe it’s the lack of expectations coming into the postseason putting me in better spirits, but I genuinely like Kansas to win this one. I might have even said that if Arkansas weren’t missing a star player, but with Thiero out, I think Kansas can force Arkansas into bad shots without having to worry too much about getting burned from the perimeter. If Arkansas gets hot from three, the calculus changes, but that’s true of any opponent, and it’s just not been their game this year. I like Dickinson to continue his run of great offensive play, and the rest of the team to hit just enough shots to win a somewhat lower scoring affair.
Kansas 72, Arkansas 66