KU’s first real test of 2024
When you think of Big Ten football’s style, chances are you think of Harbaugh’s recent Michigan teams, or programs like Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin whose identity is built around a bunch of enormous linemen opening holes for a big, strong running back. It may not always be pretty, but it can wear you down and, when combined with a strong defense, can make for a very frustrating opponent. Enter the 2024 Illinois Illini. Fourth year coach Bret Bielema, who at one time successfully coached at Wisconsin, is trying to build a team very much in that image.
After a lackluster 5-7 campaign last year, Bielema worked the transfer portal hard, bringing in an almost entirely new offensive line room. Illinois now boasts a rotation of road graders on the front line, and they make no apologies for their desire to run the ball right at you. The man they open up running lanes for isn’t all that much smaller than they are, either. Sophomore running back Kaden Feagin stands 6’3, 250 pounds, and he will be happy to run you over if you get in his way. It’s tough to say exactly how good the Kansas front seven is this year, as last week’s opponent was one of the lesser FCS squads, and shutting down their offense only tells us that they’re competent. Against Illinois, they’ll need to be more than that.
In a 45-0 domination of Eastern Illinois, the Illini ran 42 times for 244 yards, and average of nearly 6 per carry. While the running game is the foundation of Illinois’ identity, they weren’t afraid to pass against their lesser opponent, which they did 28 times. Junior QB Luke Altmyer, a returning starter from last year’s squad and an Ole Miss transfer, completed 19 of 24 attempts for 213 yards and 4 TDs last week before the backups were brought in. The only receiver with more than two catches was 6’3 senior Pat Bryant, who caught five balls for 63 yards and 2 TDs.
Defensively, Illinois lost a lot of talent along their front seven from last year, with several players getting drafted. Shutting out Eastern Illinois last week tells us about as much as KU putting the clamps on Lindenwood, so much like Kansas, the quality of Illinois’ defense has yet to be seen. Statistically, no one jumps off the page from last week’s performance, but Bielema is committed to getting Illinois a Big Ten style defense to go with their ground and pound game, something he was very successful with at Wisconsin. My money is on Illinois putting up a fight against what would appear to still be a very explosive Kansas offense.
Prediction
The line has been slowly creeping in Illinois’ favor, currently sitting at Kansas -4.5 after opening -6. This will be the first sellout crowd for Illinois since 2017, but since Illinois has yet to establish a whole lot under Bielema, it stands to reason that plenty of those seats were sold to Kansas fans, from the KC and Chicago areas alike. I doubt we’ll see a crimson and blue takeover in Champaign, but there should be some crowd noise to support the Jayhawks.
With the front seven being the most untested, questionable part of the team, I’m concerned that Illinois can put together some sustained drives and keep Jalon Daniels and the KU offense off the field, while wearing out the team’s lesser unit that still has more to prove after losing key players like Austin Booker and Kenny Logan last year. I’ve gone back and forth on this, but between the bettors liking Illinois to cover the original spread, the bad strength vs weakness profile of the Illinois offense, who can likely move the ball without testing KU’s elite pair of corners, and all the turnover both on the defense and in KU’s coaching staff from last year, I think Illinois pulls this game out at home by getting exactly enough stops needed to keep the Kansas offense from putting Illinois’ offense into passing situations they’re less comfortable with.
Illinois 28, Kansas 27