It shouldn’t be a tough test, but we may still learn something about this team
Kansas is currently a 25.5 point favorite over Howard, who ranks 217th nationally per KenPom. While hopefully this won’t be a tough match, there is still a lot to learn about this year’s Kansas team. Here are three things to keep an eye on:
1) Hunter Dickinson
The All-American big man has been battling a foot injury, but Bill Self expects him to be available tonight. Kansas struggled in their first exhibition against Arkansas, but the result came with even more of an asterisk than in a normal exhibition, with KU missing a vital piece of their team. I don’t expect Dickinson to play a lot, given the opponent, but I’m interested to see how he fits into this year’s offense, and who he does and doesn’t share the floor with. Will it largely be him and KJ Adams at the same time, something that caused problems last year? Are HD/Bidunga minutes a thing? Will he spend much time around the perimeter offensively? There’s still a lot to learn about Hunter’s fit on a largely new team this year.
2) 3 point shooting
The biggest takeaway from KU’s exhibition win over Washburn was their three point shooting. Not only did they shoot well, making 45.4% of their outside shots, but they shot a lot, taking 33 of 59 total shots from outside. It’s unlikely that this year’s team will consistently shoot half or more of their attempts from three point range, but the lack of outside shooting was something Self clearly sought to address in this year’s transfer class, so now that everything counts, does he want Kansas shooting threes early and often against an opponent they can likely dominate in other ways? Or was the Washburn game just a matter of taking the open shots they were given?
3) Minute allocation and lineups
With Dickinson and guard Shakeel Moore both coming back from injury, this one may or may not mean much moving forward. Still, I’m interested to see if KJ Adams, given his lack of spacing ability, takes a step back from last year’s minutes now that we have more ability to play multiple wings comfortably. Adams is a great athlete who can defend multiple positions, but he can’t shoot or rebound, which makes him a tough fit as a modern power forward. Still, he’s a Bill Self type of player and I wonder if he isn’t a lock for 30+ minutes every night because of the things he does offer. It may also be telling which new transfers see big minutes and which ones don’t. That may partially be due to Self playing with different combinations, but it may also give us a glimpse of who is living up to expectations in practice so far, and who might be struggling to find themselves on a talented team run by a coach who values a certain set of traits.
Prediction
Howard is a rare low-major team with size, with a roster that includes a pair of players standing 6’9 and one at 6’11. Last year Kansas struggled on the glass at times, so this is a good opponent to give that aspect of the game a little test. With that said, there’s clearly a massive talent gap between these teams and while Howard may be able to make Kansas fans sweat for a little while early, there’s little doubt that Kansas will be able to get to the basket, find open looks, and defend the Bison. Because of all the roster turnover and a change in style of play compared to last year, I’m prepared for a few more mistakes and some more tinkering than we usually see in these matchups. For that reason I’ll pick Kansas to win comfortably, but fall just shy of covering the spread.
Kansas 87, Howard 63