What are the keys to a potential road victory?
Kansas and its four game losing streak head to Tempe Saturday, to take on an Arizona State squad that’s proven much more competitive than originally expected. At the beginning of the year, nearly everyone picked Arizona State to finish at or near the bottom of the Big 12. They surprised everyone by winning all their non-conference games, followed by a close loss to Texas Tech where ASU’s’ win expectancy was greater than 50% (i.e. they probably “should” have won). They’re also coming off an early bye week, meaning they’ll be rested up and healthy coming into this one. The weather forecast (100 degrees at kickoff) likely provides some small benefit to the Sun Devils as well, since they’ve been suffering through the Valley heat for months already. With all that working against Kansas, what are the main things to look for in this matchup?
1) Can the defense limit Cam Skattebo?
Skattebo has been the ultimate workhorse for ASU this season. Against Mississippi State, he racked up 262 rushing yards on 33 attempts. Across four games this season, he’s had 99 touches, an average of about 25 per game. He’s a threat in both the run game and the passing game as well, catching six passes for 117 yards last week to go with 60 yards on the ground. Though his total yardage numbers are impressive, it’s worth noting that teams have been able to effectively limit his running lanes in their last two games, in which he averaged just 2.6 and 3.3 yards per carry. Skattebo is more of a power runner than a speedster, and ASU has rallied around him as they seek to establish themselves as a tough, physical team that wants to wear you down. If the Kansas defense can limit his effectiveness, ASU is not as comfortable throwing the ball and though the secondary has had some holes this year, daring a run-first team to throw at Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson isn’t the worst strategy.
2) What can Kansas take advantage of?
Arizona State has been cromulent in just about every way this year. SP+ ranks them 67th, with the 65th ranked offense and 48th ranked defense, with special teams sitting at 76th. They haven’t shown glaring weaknesses, but they’ve struggled to establish any aspect of their game as a major strength. Young coach Kenny Dillingham talks ad nauseum about wanting this ASU team to be as aggressive and physical as possible. They’ll likely stack the box and dare Neal and Hishaw to gash them, given KU’s struggles passing the ball. If, and this is a very big “if,” Jalon Daniels and the KU passing attack see some type of return to form this week, it’s going to be a problem for Arizona State. Teams have been about 50/50 in terms of running and passing on the Sun Devils, but the bulk of ASU’s talent is in the front seven. If JD6 starts feeling confident and his receivers get open downfield, it will likely be the key to opening everything up for a KU offense that, while disappointing, has still been fairly effective overall this year.
3) Can Kansas win a close game?
I’m sure it’s not news to anyone that Kansas has held a second half lead in all four of their losses, and 4th quarter leads in all but last week’s game. Rather than trying to hold those leads by playing aggressive football and doing the things that built the lead in the first place, the Kansas coaching staff has instead gone conservative to a fault, allowing big chunks of yardage in exchange for not giving up deep balls, and predictably running the ball and throwing short to try and run clock. Arizona State is just a 2.5 point favorite, so it’s likely Kansas will find themselves in a close game yet again this week. Has the coaching staff learned anything from watching their “coaching scared” tactics lose games for the last month? If Kansas has a 4th quarter lead in Tempe, I hope to see the offense trying to add to it and the defense trying to create havoc plays. If they go into a shell and just pray they can hold on, it’s likely to end the same way the last four have.
Prediction
This is a winnable game. Arizona State looks much improved from last year, but they don’t look like a great team by any means. Unfortunately, mediocre teams like Illinois, UNLV, West Virginia, and TCU have all managed to get by Kansas with wins. I’ve reached a point where I need to see this Jayhawk team play a full game and come away with a victory before I’ll be willing to pick them to win, especially in a primetime road game with the opponent pushing hard for sellout crowd. I think Kansas will stay in this one, but I just can’t muster the confidence to pick a victory.
Arizona State 31, Kansas 24