KU hosts KSU in part one of this year’s Sunflower Showdown
I’m going to try another little format change to my previews until I find something that works. Instead of paragraphs going on about statistical advantages, I’m going to put the preview for tomorrow’s game in bullet point format.
- K-State started the season 6-2, but have lost 7 of their last 8 and sit at just 7-9 (1-4 in conference play)
- The Wildcats are ranked 97th by Kenpom and 109th by Torvik (KU is 7th and 11th)
- Kansas State is roughly even offensively and defensively, with Torvik ranking them 121st and 124th, respectively
- The only area in the “four factors” where K-State has excelled is limiting opponent free throws. With KU not getting to the line a lot, we’re unlikely to see many free ones at the stripe for the Jayhawks
- KSU allows a ton of offensive rebounds, ranking 254th nationally on the defensive boards. KU hasn’t been a great offensive rebounding team but there should be second chance scoring opportunities
- KSU is middle of the pack as an outside shooting team, hitting 34.1%
- KSU’s 2 point defense is just ok, allowing 48.2% to opponents
- With KJ Adams potentially out, Kansas could have their hands full with KSU’s top player, 6’9 senior David N’Guessan, who has scored in double digits in all but three games this year. He’s hit 68.5% of his two point shots, and does a little bit of everything
- K-State has a legitimate 3 point threat in Brendan Hausen, who’s hit 40.3% on 124 attempts this year
- K-State has some size between N’Guessan and 6’11 Ugonna Onyenso and 6’10 Baye Fall. However, neither logs a lot of minutes and Onyenso has missed stretches of time this year
- KU should be able to avoid foul trouble in this one, as K-State has been bad (283rd nationally) in free throw rate
Prediction
It’s tough to see how Kansas loses this one. Beating in Ames aside, the Jayhawks have seemingly found an identity in playing smothering 2 point defense and winning rock fights when shots aren’t falling. Even if KJ Adams can’t go, the combination of Bidunga and Dickinson should make it tough for the Wildcats to score, and could also mean extra minutes for Rylan Griffen and AJ Storr, who in theory should give more of a boost to the offense than Adams does.
Kansas has been winning ugly and, as long as the defense holds up and K-State doesn’t go nuclear from three, winning ugly shouldn’t require a ton on points being scored in this one. That’s good, given KU’s offensive struggles this year. I hesitate to pick blowouts from this year’s team and this game is no different. I have little concern about a loss, but simultaneously have little faith in this team to blow out their opponents, regardless of quality (with UCF being the obvious outlier). I’ll take Kansas in a comfortable but not particularly aesthetic win.
Kansas 74, Kansas State 64