Time for another blue blood
Just four days ago, Kansas had a tough early test in Lawrence against North Carolina. Tonight, they have to lay it all on the line again in ESPN’s Champions Classic in Atlanta. While some of the shine has come off Tom Izzo and Michigan State’s star (which was always going to happen, given the unsustainable success he had going in March for a while), it’s important not to write this team off. Michigan State ranked 16th last year per KenPom (KU was 27th) and while KP only puts them 34th right now, Bart Torvik’s rankings have them 17th. They aren’t elite, but this team isn’t going to be a pushover, either.
Both Pomeroy and Torvik agree that defense is this team’s calling card. Torvik ranks MSU’s defense 9th nationally, and they look to make it a half court game with a slow pace. So far, that’s a sharp contrast to this year’s Kansas team, which looks to get out and score at a rapid fire pace. A lot of who wins this one will depend on who can dictate the style of play, and who can impose their size and athleticism on the other.
Key players to watch for include senior guard Jaden Akins, who started the season with 23 points in his first game and is a capable shooter. 6’9 sophomore Jaxon Kohler hasn’t played big minutes, but his tempo-free stats are impressive, boasting a DReb% of 36.4% and OReb% of 25.5% with an offensive rating of 123.7 while also blocking a few shots. He’s played just under half the team’s minutes and hasn’t faced a team like Kansas yet, but those are dominant numbers.
Game Time: 5:30pm Central
TV: ESPN
Radio Feed: kuathletics.com
Prediction:
Is Kansas the team we saw in the first half against UNC, or the team we saw in the second, nearly giving away a game that was well in hand? Right now, they’re probably both. Self is clearly tinkering to see what works and if Friday was any indication, he’s not afraid to tinker in big-time matchups. We’ll probably see more of that tonight, and the big question will be whether he can find some good player combos that don’t let Michigan State get into a comfortable half-court defense. If that happens, Kansas can absolutely lose this game. If Kansas can fully dictate tempo and style of play though, look out, because Kansas can absolutely run away with this game, too. That makes it tough to pick, but since I think the range of likely outcomes go from, say, 5 point Michigan State win to 15 point KU win, it would make sense to lean toward the Jayhawks. I’ll take them to win, but to fall just short of covering in a close game.
Kansas 79, Michgan State 75