3 things to watch in today’s game
Kansas, at 7-2 on a two-game losing streak, is badly in need of a get-right game. As 14.5 point favorites, today’s home matchup with NC State would appear to be exactly what they’re looking for. NC State comes in as a major conference opponent, but a weak one, ranked 78th by KenPom and 80th by Torvik.
The Wolfpack are a slow-paced team with a mediocre defense and weak offense, and would appear to be an opponent that may struggle to keep up with KU’s horses. With that in mind, here are three things to watch in today’s game.
1) Can KU win the free throw battle?
In KU’s recent road losses to Creighton and Missouri, they rarely got to the line while sending the opponent there too often. Creighton only shot 17 free throws, which isn’t a terrible number, unless you compare it to Kansas’ paltry eight attempts. Missouri was a much bigger problem as they shot a whopping 31 free throws while Kansas attempted just 11.
For the season, Kansas ranks 361st out of 364 teams in offensive free throw rate. Bill Self offenses, including this year, are generally predicated on shots at the rim, which naturally draw more free throws. With Hunter Dickinson not getting to the line much, Self needs to find a way to get players like AJ Storr, Zeke Mayo, and even KJ Adams going to the basket downhill to increase the number of high-percentage shots, and the easy ones from the stripe.
NC State has been very good at getting to line, in the top 75 nationally in offensive free throw rate, but has been sending opponents there frequently, ranking 202nd on the defensive end. This would be a good game to try and bring that number up by attacking the basket.
2) Can KU generate enough open/easy shots?
At the risk of overlapping with my first point, KU’s recent offensive struggles have largely been built on teams taking away high-percentage shots in the lane and around the rim. With Hunter Dickinson not really representing a perimeter threat, despite some three point shooting ability, and KJ Adams being dangerous exclusively at the rim, defenses have been welcomed to pack the paint and take away the easiest buckets.
Kansas has responded by trying tough shots anyway, hitting just 42.5% of their twos against Missouri and 36.1% against Creighton. NC State isn’t a great defensive team, but it’s the stronger end of the court for them, and they do boast a healthy block rate of 12.2%. It’s on Bill Self to figure out a solution, whether that’s encouraging the team to shoot more open threes or configuring his lineups to better space the floor and open up driving lanes. NC State will put up some resistance, but Kansas should have the talent and coaching advantage needed to find a way to generate better shots.
3) Will Bill Self shake up his lineups?
Coming off two straight losses, I’m interested to see how much Bill Self will or won’t change his personnel decisions. KJ Adams, with his athleticism and defensive prowess, and Hunter Dickinson, with his scoring ability around the basket and defensive rebounding, both have skill sets that would seemingly demand that they play a lot of minutes. The conundrum is that, as mentioned above, playing them together makes Kansas quite a bit easier to defend, especially with Dajuan Harris, Jr proving that taking a bunch of shots himself is a losing strategy.
Self has the tough task of coming up with a strategy that gets more contributions from guys like Storr, Mayo, and Rylan Griffen, who were all brought in laregly to fix the similar offensive frustrations from last season, without disrupting the positives provided by post players like Dickinson, Adams, and Flory Bidunga.
Prediction
I’m sure the Jayhawks are eager to get the taste of back-to-back losses out of their mouths, and a home game after a week to rest up and strategize is a good opportunity, especially against a mediocre opponent. Because I think the Jayhawks are still in a mode where they’re feeling out how they need to play and with what personnel, I’m shying away from picking a smooth sailing blowout.
NC State has some size and skill and will try to make this a half-court game. I have a hard time seeing them score against Kansas’ defense, especially since they don’t shoot many threes and are pretty bad (256th nationally at 31%) at making them. This makes me confident Kansas can win, but bearish on the margin. I’d say the point spread sounds about right, with a game where Kansas can get out to a somewhat comfortable lead, but never quite get the game to blowout status.
Kansas 78, NC State 65