We really have to play this game?
Yeah, it’s this game. The one that looked like a brutal matchup at the beginning of the year, and only looks far tougher now. Tonight the Jayhawks travel to Houston to take on the already-Big-12-champion Cougars, coached by a man who’s arguably as good as anyone in college basketball at his job (sorry, Dan Hurley) in Kelvin Sampson.
The Cougars play a smothering brand of defense while maintaining an elite offense. This is a rough matchup, but here are some key things to watch in tonight’s game:
-Remember, as daunting as a road trip to Houston is, this Kansas team had them all but beat in Lawrence before multiple plays on both ends of the court broke just right for the Cougars in the end
-Houston ranks 3rd in KenPom’s ratings and 1st per Torvik. The Jayhawks are 21st and 22nd, respectively
-Looking at the Four Factors, it’s tough to find a weakness in Houston’s game. They crash the offensive glass about as well as anyone while doing fine on the other end. Their three point shooting is outstanding and floats their eFG% despite underwhelming 2 point shooting. They turn you over while refusing to give it up when they have the ball. I’m glad it’s not my job to gameplan for this team
-Though Houston is a top 5 3P% team, they don’t lean heavily on perimeter shooting, ranking nearly dead last in the conference in 3 point rate (even Kansas has tried more threes)
-Somehow LJ Cryer is still in college, and he’s still an elite shooter who can set up buckets for others here and there while rarely turning it over and playing fantastic defense
-Emmanuel Sharp is an even better shooter who turns it over even less
-In the last matchup, J’wan Roberts ate Kansas up down the stretch. After a bit of a rough stretch, he’s now scored in double digits in 4 of their last 5 and will be a handful for KJ again
-Have a backup plan for what to do with your Monday night. As of this morning, Kansas is a 9.5 point underdog and Torvik sees them losing by 11+
Prediction
It doesn’t feel like there’s much hope for this game. Houston is a wrecking machine that’s lost just one game in a fairly strong conference. Kansas hasn’t beaten a tournament team since November. Are the Jayhawks capable of playing Houston to a tough finish, even on the road? I’d still say yes, but it’s more likely that Houston comes away with a win without having to sweat out the finish like they did in Lawrence
Houston 78, Kansas 68