Is Kansas due for a break in their direction?
K-State has won 15 of these things in a row. During the dark years it was easier to accept, albeit still a bitter pill, given that we usually only had a chance in one or two league games every year. But under Lance Leipold this program can’t accept such a lopsided relationship with our rivals to the west. Yes, the team is 2-5 and the season is, last week’s win notwithstanding, on the brink of being a complete failure. But if, somehow, Kansas pulls off a win in Manhattan, some of the excitement lost in this year’s string of losses will return in a hurry. Here are three things to watch for if Kansas wants a shot at winning this thing.
1) Can Kansas slow down Avery Johnson?
Johnson was such a highly regarded prospect that many Wildcat fans didn’t even mind Will Howard moving on, despite Howard apparently being good enough for Ohio State to bring him aboard. Early this season Johnson struggled with accuracy and still hasn’t been great in that department, but his passing game is settling in, throwing for 200+ yards in each of his last three games, after failing to do so even once across his first four. At times, he’s made up for the lack of consistent passing with his athleticism, running for 110 yards against Arizona and 60 or more in two other games. Colorado managed to hold him to -15 (including sacks), so it’s not a guarantee that he can beat you with either his legs or his arm on a given day. At the same time, he’s capable of beating you with one or both on any given day. Johnson is a sophomore and in his first full year as a starter, and while the talent is there, he hasn’t truly established himself as an elite QB yet. KU seems to consistently have problems with running QBs, but if they can find a way to keep a lid on Robinson’s running game, he’s not experienced enough to be a sure thing beating Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson. It’s possible to limit the young talent to mediocre numbers, but if Kansas wants to win, it becomes a necessity.
2) Is Jalon Daniels back?
It feels like I’ve written about some form of this question every week this year, but for the first time we’re coming off a performance where JD6’s production was undeniable. Yes, Houston is a bad team, but the Daniels of the early season didn’t look capable of putting together that kind of game against anyone (JD6 completed 16 of 21 for 247 yards, 3 TDs, no picks, and ran for 58 more). Hopefully that’s the confidence boost he needed to put some of the errant throws and head-scratching decisions behind him and look like the Daniels of 2022, because if we get the Daniels who gives the ball to the other team, Kansas doesn’t win this game.
3) Jeff Grimes vs KSU’s defense
Per SP+, K-State ranks 16th overall and has a top 30 defense in the nation. Their offense is even better, but at this point we know what we’re going to get from KU’s bend-but-hopefully-maybe-don’t-break defense. The Wildcats will score some points. It’s a given. What I’m more interested in is whether the offense, which hasn’t been as bad as fans seem to think and ranks 27th per SP+, can turn this game into a shootout even against the best defense they’ve faced all year. K-State has struggled at times with the passing game, but they’ve been dominant against the run, allowing opponents just 2.73 yards/carry. I don’t think Daniels throwing the ball 50 times is a recipe for a win, so Devin Neal and the Jayhawks are going to need to find success on the ground. The offensive line has been decent this year, and Devin Neal is a future pro. It sounds like Hishaw is unlikely to go due to injury, so this is Jeff Grimes’ chance to prove himself as an OC. This feels like a game where you need to pull out all the stops, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned with Daniels getting hit a couple of times if it means he’s using his legs to move the sticks. I’d like to see a return to some of Kotelnicki’s unique option game from recent years to keep KSU from simply setting up their front seven and daring us to run at them. Daniels will need to take care of the ball and throw the ball well when called upon, but I think he needs to be part of a running game that stretches the field horizontally to keep KSU guessing.
Prediction
I see a path to victory here. That may sound crazy, with Kansas entering the game 2-5 and KSU being 10 point home favorites, but the Wildcats aren’t an unbeatable juggernaut. They’re just a very good, well-balanced team. Kansas, at its best, is still good enough to beat a team like that.
The question, will Kansas be able to come out and beat a team like that? Unfortunately, it feels like just about everything would need to go right. In a way it feels like KU is due for a close game to go their way, given the way their losses have generally played out, but in truth they aren’t really “due” for anything. They need to execute a quality game plan and rely on a little luck. I’m not going to assume things will just play out that way. I think Kansas will keep this interesting for a while as long as they aren’t turning the ball over, but even if this same team had won a couple of those close games and was sitting at 4-3 right now, K-State is still more talented. I’ll take them to win by right around the current point spread.
Kansas State 34, Kansas 24