“It’s the Big 12” is a phrase often heard in reference to the chaotic unpredictability this league holds. Last season six teams were separated by two games or less at the top of the standings. The year prior, TCU popped out of the Big 12 pinball machine a champion and wound up in the penultimate game of the season. Before that, Oklahoma State made their CFP case with a regular season best 8-1 record, before falling to Baylor in the conference title game
It seems that every year, a new uprising program claims their place at the top of the league, either as a flash in the pan or a fresh perennial contender. In the past, this only guaranteed participation in the conference title game. An unexpectedly strong regular season provided an opportunity to knock off one more premier opponent and lift a trophy that at one time was perceived to be the most prestigious realistically attainable goal for Big 12 programs experiencing their first modern tastes of success.
Times have changed. 12 teams qualify for the College Football Playoff. The cherry on top is the fact that somebody has to win the Big 12. Furthermore, somebody has to represent that conference as its champion and likely obtain a first round bye in what is now a full fledged postseason tournament. In a chaotic Big 12 with no clear title favorite, the question becomes… if anyone can do it, why not Kansas?
It’s easy to wrap your head around the idea that if the Big 12 is practically bound to send its champion to the playoff, winning the conference is the simplest way to get there. Of course, that’s a strenuous task in and of itself, but that path follows simple logic.
Kansas, barring complete conference implosion, could win the conference with a limited number of losses and likely skip the first round of the playoff it at last qualified for.
The cloud surrounding both the Big 12 and the ACC, is how many schools from each of those conferences will be selected by the committee for at-large bids. Especially in a sporadic Big 12… how many teams will have resumes capable of obtaining a playoff berth? It’s reasonable to suggest that at least one additional member of this league would play postseason football. Unless, of course, the entire top of the conference beats up on one another until no viable contenders remain with few blemishes in the loss column.
It’s in the Jayhawks’ best interest for chaos to run rampant in the Big 12. Kansas cannot take down every conference contender alone, and would benefit from upsets around the rest of the league. The question becomes whether Kansas can avoid that chaos, triumph over other title favorites, and find themselves in a favorable situation where there aren’t many surefire playoff resumes left to fill at-large spots around the country.
What does it take? Most likely, wins over every team Kansas is favored against will be vital. Chaotic upset losses not only tarnish Big 12 title hopes, but also drag at-large resumes to the depths of irrelevancy. The second aspect of the schedule involves the games against other assured conference title contenders. Namely, Kansas State and Iowa State. A win in at least one of those games would not only solidify KU in the mix for a conference championship, but would also provide a resume defining win or two to convince the committee that Kansas is a force to be reckoned with.
That being said, every other Big 12 team can make the same case. Arizona, for example, must take care of business and topple one of Kansas State or Utah on the road to be considered playoff contenders. Not only that, but contending teams outside the Big 12 are bound to complicate the selection process. Clemson, Notre Dame, Penn State, LSU, and countless others will likely be at the forefront of the at-large conversation with not much negative separation from the Kansas Jayhawks.
With that in mind, of course, an undefeated season would be the preferred method of ensuring playoff inclusion. The quota the Jayhawks must hit this season, by all accounts so far, is 11 wins. A loss in the Big 12 title game is permissible. A loss to KSU or Iowa State, no matter how agonizing, would be acceptable. If Kansas can escape the pinball machine as a champion… The Jayhawks are playoff bound. If Kansas escapes with one loss… meaningful postseason football is still on the table. A second loss, though, would all but doom the season for KU.
It seems that the path to the playoff will be a tricky one no matter which route one takes, but a few constants seem to hold true. An undefeated season, a conference title, or both would ensure a playoff appearance. Two losses would almost definitely lock the Jayhawks out of the field. And 11 wins, no matter where they come, should be a tangible goal that represents valid playoff contention.
With the season opener arriving in a mere 80 days, every team in the country has a clean slate with no wins and no losses. Kansas, fortunately, is amongst the cream of the crop with nothing but hope in the minds of fans. For the first time in recent history, the sky is all that’s limiting the Kansas Jayhawks.