Things to watch with a prediction at the end!
I’m switching up the preview format a bit this week to make it more concise and, hopefully, more useful moving forward. Today we’ll look at 3 things that will be important to watch in tonight’s home-ish game against UNLV in Kansas City, KS.
- Can Kansas contain Matthew Sluka?
UNLV has an unusual offense that relies almost entirely on the running game, and Holy Cross transfer QB Matthew Sluka is actually their leading rusher. He ranks in the top 25 nationally in QBR, which incorporates a QB’s contributions in the running game in its measure of play. Sluka has thrown just 30 passes and completed only 14 of them, for 232 yards and 5 TDs through two games. As noted above though, he leads the team in both carries and rushing yards, with 20 runs for 129 yards and a TD.
UNLV’s offense will be unlike anything Kansas has seen in recent years. Frequently, run heavy teams are about controlling the ball and time of possession. However, this is an up-tempo offense that tries to fake the defense out with numerous disguised plays and option runs. Gap integrity will be huge for Kansas, because UNLV’s rushing attack is designed to create home run plays, not just whittle away at the defense 4 yards at a time. They’ve run the ball 111 times this season while throwing just 34, so the front seven, along with the safeties, need to be locked in on Sluka and exactly where he goes with the ball.
2. Playcalling
I don’t think there’s a Kansas fan around who was happy with OC Jeff Grimes after last week. Devin Neal, arguably the team’s best player, was hardly involved in the second half despite playing well in the first. And even in the first half, Grimes was too busy having Daniels throw screens to the sidelines to pick up short gains to give his 1-2 punch of Neal and Daniel Hishaw a chance to capitalize on how well the line was blocking in the running game.
Though Grimes seemed to blame effort for KU’s poor performance this week, he did still acknowledge that he should have done more to establish the run and keep it going. That’s true, especially given how poorly Jalon Daniels played (more on that in a moment), but we need to actually see it before we give him any credit for recognizing his mistakes. If we come out and throw a ton of predictable short screens and don’t put Daniels in a better situation while failing to lean on arguably the best pair of RBs on any team in the country, the calls for Grimes’ job, just three weeks in, will get incredibly loud.
3. Is JD6 still JD6?
Last week we saw Daniels play his worst game since his freshman year, if not his worst game in a Kansas uniform. He routinely underthrew his receivers, or threw behind them. It was tough to tell whether Daniels’ back problems have taken a bit off his fastball, or if he just wasn’t judging the throws properly. My hope is that Grimes gets Daniels some easy completions early, but preferably in the short to intermediate passing game (read: NOT through a bunch of ineffective bubble screens). Daniels never looked entirely comfortable last week despite solid protection, but this UNLV defense is worse than what Illinois brought to the table last week. There’s no excuse for failing to move the ball effectively against the Rebels, and if Daniels struggles while the offense sputters, it’s hard to see how we don’t have a serious problem on our hands this year.
Prediction
Again, UNLV has a weak defense. They did hold Houston to 7 points, but Houston looks like a pretty mediocre team, despite almost messing around and beating a lackluster Oklahoma squad last week. I think Kansas can gash them in the running game, and hopefully get a little something going through the air as well. However, I’m gun shy after last week’s performance, and UNLV isn’t Lindenwood. They have a unique and productive offense and are at least a FBS quality defense. Kansas should be the better team here, but they were the better team last week and still lost. I think KU will get a little swagger back now that they clearly will have something to prove, and will make just enough plays to win. UNLV is one of the better G5 teams and I don’t think a stress-free blowout is in the cards, but I do think a close win is very attainable.
Kansas 34, UNLV 30