The young infielder did not have the breakout we hoped for
Let’s summarize through the facts quickly so we can get to the interesting parts.
In 2023, Maikel Garcia was one of the bright spots on the roster. He played an excellent third base, ran the bases exceptionally well, and hit well enough to make those two things hold up. Note that he didn’t hit great, he finished that season with a .681 OPS which helped lead to an 83 wRC+, well below league average. But it was good enough combined with his defense and baserunning to make him valuable as a big-league starter at third base, worth 2.1 fWAR in only 123 games.
Coming into 2024 many, including yours truly, were predicting he might have a breakout season and he was immediately awarded the same position he had held at the end of 2023, starting third baseman and leadoff hitter. For a time, that seemed like it might work. In April, he replicated his 2023 with an 83 wRC+, then in May he exploded with a 116 wRC+. Things seemed to be coming together. Then, as the Royals’ tailspin in June occurred, he managed a measly 9 wRC+. He bounced back in July, then regressed to a degree in August, and fell apart again in September. He finished the year with a 69 wRC+, and his fWAR was a measly 1.1 in 157 games. A testament to just how good his baserunning and defense still were to have been a positive force with such a weak bat.
There can be no argument that Maikel Garcia was not good in 2024. If the Royals are serious about contending in 2025 they cannot enter the season with him as the presumptive full-time starter at third base. And it probably doesn’t make much sense to make him the weak side of a platoon, either. I think most of us agree that he probably deserved a D grade for his work in 2024 and he could be an exciting upgrade over Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson as a utility player.
But that doesn’t mean Garcia is a bust or that he will never be good.
I wrote about this last week, but I’d like to focus in on why Maikel Garcia fits in the mold of a guy who could become a high-quality major league baseball player.
The first thing that needs to be dispelled is that Maikel Garcia needs to hit the ball to right more. Baseball Reference has a terrific stat in their splits called tOPS+ that makes this really easy to break down. It stands for OPS+ for the split relative to the player’s total OPS+. So, basically, if a player has a 100 OPS+, but a 125 tOPS+ on balls hit between the third baseman and shortstop, that means he does better when hitting the ball there than he does in general. Garcia’s tOPS+ for balls hit to the opposite field in 2024 was 123. 23% above his own average is pretty good! But when pulled it, he had a 238 tOPS+ which is absolutely elite. As you might imagine, that means his tOPS+ for balls hit up the middle was a very weak 84.
To get a better idea of how that ranks in general, we can go to FanGraphs and see that he had a 101 wRC+ when hitting it to right field, a 123 wRC+ when pulling the ball, and a 40 wRC+ when hitting it to center. So, basically, he’s league average when hits it to opposite field, he’s Trea Turner when he pulls it, and he’s worthless hitting it up the middle. If anything, he should be pulling the ball more.
It’s quite interesting that his numbers would be so bad hitting to center. That’s usually where a hitter wants to hit. And, indeed, he had a 133 wRC+ hitting to center in 2023. Either teams started shifting him to death for balls up the middle or he was hitting into some bad luck. He was definitely experiencing some bad luck, though.
In 2023 he had a .344 BABIP, which is pretty high. In 2024 he had a .268 BABIP, which is very low for a hitter like him. His average exit velocity went down a touch in 2024, but was still well above average for the league. In 2023 his expected batting average (xBA) was .272 and he hit .274, in 2024 it was .264 but he actually hit .231. When you take a peek at his Baseball Savant page there’s plenty of red on there, still, too. He squares the ball up well, he almost never chases and he barely whiffs which all leads to a low strikeout rate.
To reiterate, Maikel Garcia should not be relied upon as a starter in 2025 if the Royals are serious about contending for a consecutive playoff berth. However, the guy will only be 25 years old entering next season with lots of advanced metrics that suggest the best is yet to come for him in some future season. He earned his D for 2024, but there are still plenty of reasons to hope he can become good in the near future.