2024 Season in Review: Michael Wacha and his career renaissance

That ever since we met you’ve had a hold on me. It happens to be true—I only want to be with you.

Raise your hand if you thought when the Royals signed Michael Wacha last season that he would have the best season of his career in 2024.

Okay, now put down your hand, you liar.

Wacha’s always been a solid starting pitcher since he broke into the Majors at age 21 with the St. Louis Cardinals. That season, he made only nine regular season starts, but then made another five in the playoffs as the Cardinals went all the way to the World Series, falling to the Red Sox.

But a few years later, in 2016, just a season after making the All-Star team, Wacha’s ERA ballooned to over 5 while his FIP, WHIP, and walks-per-nine all increased. He managed sticking around St. Louis another three seasons but never surpassed, or even reached, the heights he set his first three seasons.

His next two seasons looked to be his last two seasons. He struggled in 2020 with the Mets, then struggled even more in 2021 with the Rays. Things looked dire for the pitcher who was about to turn 30 and was without a contract. It could’ve been the end.

And yet, Wacha’s done a complete 180 on his career. After his disastrous stint in Tampa, he signed with the Red Sox organization and posted a career-best 3.3 bWAR over 127 innings. The biggest keys? Opponents hit worse against him as he dropped his home run percentage but nearly a full percentage point. Batters were suddenly not hitting the ball nearly as hard against him. Despite his strikeout percentage dropping and walk percentage rising, Wacha posted a 127 ERA+, the best of his career in a full season.

Then he left the Red Sox for the Padres, and kept it up. He tossed over 134 innings in San Diego, the most of his career since 2017, going 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA, 31% better than the league average.

Once again, he found himself in free agency after the season, and this time signed with the Royals, his sixth team in six seasons—St. Louis, New York, Tampa Bay, Boston, San Diego, and Kansas City.

He joined the team with fellow Padres expatriate Seth Lugo, and while he didn’t pitch as well as Lugo did, he did more than enough to solidify Kansas City’s rotation, helping the team return to the post-season for the first time in nearly a decade.

Wacha made 29 starts, the most since he was 25 in 2017 with the Cardinals, while tossing 166.2 innings, the second-most of his career and most since he made the All-Star team back in 2015.

He continued his trend of well above-average ERAs, this time with a 3.35 ERA, which was 26% better than league-average. He only allowed home runs 2.5% of the time, his lowest rate since his second year with the Cardinals. His strikeout rate dipped but so did his walk rate, and batters’ average exit velocity against dropped to 86.2 MPH, the lowest of his career (back to 2015, when it was first charted).

For the fifth season in a row, batters’ hard-hit percentage against Wacha dropped. It hit its nadir back in 2020 at 43.6%. In 2024, it was all the way down to 32.6%.

Based on his stellar year, it made all the sense in the world for Wacha to opt out of his second year and test the open market.

It also made incredible sense for the Royals to re-negotiate with him on a longer-term deal. Now, he remains a part of the Royals starting rotation for the next several seasons, and his return enabled the Royals to tinker even more with the roster, allowing them to address an area of weakness from a surplus of strength.

Michael Wacha’s return is already paying dividends.

2024 Grade: A