Can the Royals outfielder ever break through in the majors?
September 2023 was mired in loss for the Kansas City Royals. The team was well on its way to the worst season in club history. Among the losses, however, outfielder MJ Melendez was amid a quiet breakout, hitting .261/.409/.493 in the final month of the 106-loss season.
Now, fast forward to a little more than a year later, he’s become one of the more polarizing figures in the current Royals lineup. In 2024, Melendez slashed an abysmal .206/.273/.400. The power was evident. That power made Melendez the minor league leader in home runs with 41 back in 2021. Despite hitting the ball hard, he simply didn’t make enough contact for it to move the needle.
Back in September, the narrative was different. “What’s a guy gotta do?” I said.
Just how well has it shown in the results? Since the All-Star Break, Melendez has slashed an impressive .290/.346/.511. In those 48 games, he’s hit eight home runs thanks in part to a .222 ISO. The strikeout rate, once over 30%, is down to 26.7%. In that span, his OPS of .857 ranks 46th in baseball — just ahead of Juan Soto at .856. Merv is one of eight Royals hitters with at least 100 PA in the second half. His 126 wRC+ is second on the team to Bobby Witt Jr.
What happened to that version of MJ Melendez? His struggles over the better part of three seasons now have many fans ready to jump ship. They’re ready to move on and find better options for left field. His career -0.8 fWAR doesn’t exactly tell a different story. Despite that, is there a path back to success for MJ Melendez with the Royals?
Back in 2021, the Twins entered the season with a trio of bats atop their farm system. One of them was outfielder Trevor Larnach. Larnach was the team’s number three prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. He ranked #79 on their Top 100 prospect list. Compare that to MJ Melendez, who ranked #51 on the list in 2022 and was the Royals’ #2 prospect.
Larnach debuted in 2021 for Minnesota and his debut fell flat. He finished the year with a .223 average, a 34.6% strikeout rate, and a 91 wRC+. 2022 was somewhat better, followed by a slight taper in production for 2023. In all, the first three seasons for Larnach were worth a 96 wRC+. MJ Melendez, by comparison, has a career 91 wRC+ after three seasons. The two players offer a lot of similarities that are worth considering. The main similarities to consider are the underlying metrics below.
Larnach and Melendez posted very comparable numbers across the board. Larnach hit the ball hard, He pulled the ball quite a bit and walked enough, but simply didn’t produce enough offensive value despite the strong process. All of that sounds eerily similar to Melendez. Fast forward to 2024 and Larnach turned a corner. In his fourth season, Larnach slashed .259/.338/.434 with a 121 wRC+. His defensive value is negative, but Larnach still mustered 1.5 fWAR over 112 games.
Compared to his first three seasons, not much changed for Larnach.
Comparing the metrics above, only one thing changed. By comparison, that one thing would seem to be the secret to unlocking MJ Melendez as well. Perhaps not surprisingly, Melendez will need to make more contact in the zone to find more success in 2025 and beyond. The secret to Larnach’s success stemmed from changes to his swing.
So this offseason, he initially worked to eliminate the leg kick altogether and adopt a wider base, then found he naturally added a small step back into his swing that felt comfortable — and it’s that sort of in-between approach that has helped him find success so far this year.
It’s not hyperbole to call the looming offseason the most important of Melendez’s career. He’s at the same place Larnach was before this season. That’s also the same place that Mike Moustakas once was for the Royals before 2015. Can Alec Zumwalt and Drew Saylor follow in the footsteps of Dale Sveum? That much remains to be seen. Melendez offers far too much upside for the Royals to simply toss him to the wayside.
Melendez is well-liked in the Royals clubhouse. He grew up with the current core of Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. MLB Trade Rumors predicts Melendez will earn $2.5 million next season in his first year of arbitration. That low cost shouldn’t be any more motivating for the Royals to cut bait on their third-year outfielder.
The questions surrounding MJ Melendez do not center around whether he will return for next season (as many fans may hope). Instead, they center around what can be done this offseason to finally let the process bleed through into the results.
Melendez should be given every chance to prove himself next season after another offseason of work. If he can’t pull a Larnach or a Moustakas, he’ll be making a salary fit for the platoon bench piece he’ll become. If he can, however, he’ll be a key piece in bringing the Royals offense to life next season.