The bullpen? Nice. The outfield? Not exactly so.
There’s a metaphorical magnifying glass hovering above the beginning of each MLB season. Baseball is a marathon but humans nevertheless try to glean meaning from events that aren’t infused with much meaning, and that means overreacting to the first few series.
Well, we have reached the double-digit games mark of the season. Is 10 games that much more meaningful than nine? No. But it is a nice round number, and it also coincides with two times through the rotation order.
Last year, I wrote this exact article after the 10-game mark and my observations were all spot-on. Matt Quatraro had a short leash when it came to the bullpen, the rotation was indeed hugely improved, Bobby Witt Jr. did leap forward, and Vinnie Pasquantino didn’t bounce back to his 2022 figures.
So, let’s take another stab at this. These are five things that stick out over the Royals’ first 10 games of the year.
1. The outfield is going to be a huge mess
All offseason, the Royals tried to get an outfield bat at a price point that they were comfortable with. They were linked to Starling Marte, Taylor Ward, Jurickson Profar, and Anthony Santander, among others. They knew they needed a bat and a legitimate corner outfielder. It was painfully clear last year that the outfield was a weakness of the team.
Nothing has happened in the first 10 games to suggest otherwise. MJ Melendez and his new swing has barely resulted in any contact. Hunter Renfroe has struggled to make contact and has had some defensive misadventures. Kyle Isbel is a fine fourth outfielder miscast as the starting center fielder. Dairon Blanco and Tyler Tolbert are best used as pinch runners and defensive replacements without much offensive exposure.
This is not a problem that will go away, at least for months. Internally, Drew Waters, Nick Loftin, or John Rave have had hot starts. In Double-A, Spencer Nivens and Gavin Cross are intriguing. But all of them have some warts or reasons to doubt they’d be instant improvements, which is what the Royals need. So strap in: it’s gonna be a bumpy ride until the Royals inevitably trade for some help in June.
2. The starting pitching hinges on Kris Bubic
Last year’s starting pitching staff was one of the best in the league. Not only did it feature four legitimate above average guys, but the whole rotation was astoundingly healthy—three pitchers started 32 or more games, and the core five all started at least 25 games.
With such a high bar to clear, it is no shade on the returning members of the pitching staff that we can’t expect a repeat of such good health and good performance. Indeed, the returning members of the staff—Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo—haven’t been quite as sharp as a group so far.
This brings us to Kris Bubic, who in two starts looks unbelievably good. In 12.2 innings, Bubic has struck out nearly 33% of batters faced and has allowed one (1) run. He looks just as solid as he did last year out of the pen.
If Bubic is for real, the Royals can weather the inevitable regression elsewhere, because this version of Bubic is just as good as peak Cole Ragans. Seriously.
3. There is immense pressure on Bob to repeat
Bobby Witt Jr. had one of the best seasons by a shortstop, ever, last year. And he’s going to need to do it again.
Well, maybe not exactly again. You’d take a 150 wRC+ and, like, third or fourth place in the MVP voting, something around 5 or 6 WAR. But since Witt was so dang good last year, there is so much farther for him to regress and still be an All-Star.
There is just no room for Witt to do that. He has to be great, and we’ve already seen what happens when Witt isn’t great. When Witt had a .641 on base plus slugging through the first six games, the Royals scored two or fewer runs in half of them. The Royals lost four.
There are multiple players who need to do well, but let’s be honest: the biggest gap between the best you could expect from Vinnie and the worst is 3 WAR or so. Witt being 3 WAR worse than last year would make him a 7-WAR player, which is nuts.
4. Maikel Garcia has the best chance of taking the next step
Kansas City has three players who could take the next step: Maikel Garcia, MJ Melendez, and Michael Massey. Massey has been the best of the trio on the offense side of the ball, while Garcia has shown a killer baserunning instinct and has athleticism to play all over the field. Melendez…that’s a different story.
The chances of all three taking the next step to becoming an above average regular are around zero. Two of them would be a shock. But one, yeah, I think one could notably improve, and I think that player is Garcia.
In part, Garcia is just the closest of the three to being an above average regular. He just needs to be a league average bat. Easier said than done, sure, but in the early section of this season, Garcia has borne the fruits of an overhauled swing designed to make more and better contact. It has worked.
5. HDH? How about…HEE?
Back in the day, Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland dominated the seventh through ninth innings during Kansas City’s back-to-back World Series runs. When the Royals had a lead in the seventh, the game was over. You were toast.
Not everyone can be Wade Davis, obviously. There’s only one of him. But the Royals could use a similar strategy should Hunter Harvey, Lucas Erceg, and Carlos Estevez prove to be an excellent unit at the end of the bullpen. Add in Daniel Lynch IV into the Luke Hochevar role and the Royals might just have a solid lockdown bullpen…
…if the other bullpen arms can stand up. But there aren’t many teams who have seven stellar bullpen arms. Having three reliable ones is really, really good.