What does the 2025 draft look like three months out?
“Baseball is finally back,” say many Americans as the calendar flips to April. But while the Major League Baseball season is still nascent, lower levels are much further along — the Division I college season is about halfway through and there has been plenty of action at the prep level as well. Many players in these games will be plying their trade with scouts in the stands as teams prepare for the 2025 MLB Draft.
While we don’t employ scouts here at Royals Review, we are also putting in the work to prepare for draft day. This article serves as an introduction preceding the many articles in the coming months breaking down draft prospects. We will touch on a few prospects today, but the raison d’être of this piece is to take a more high-level look at how the Royals could approach this draft. Without further ado, let’s go through some questions you may have regarding the draft.
When is the draft?
The 2025 Major League Baseball Rule 4 Draft will begin on July 13 as part of MLB’s All-Star week festivities.
Who is picking at the top of the draft?
The Washington Nationals won the draft lottery and were awarded the first overall pick. They will be followed by the Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, and St. Louis Cardinals.
When do the Royals pick?
Kansas City will get the 23rd selection of the first round to begin the draft. This will be the first draft since 2018 that the Royals did not select in the top ten and the latest top selection that the team has had since 2016, when they surrendered their first-round pick for signing Ian Kennedy in free agency (that pick was used by San Diego to draft Hudson Potts, who did not reach the majors and is out of affiliated baseball).
The Royals will not need to wait long before picking again as they also hold the 28th overall pick. This is a Prospect Promotion Incentive pick that the team received thanks to Bobby Witt Jr.’s MVP runner-up finish in 2024. Their second-round pick will land at 61, followed by a competitive balance pick at 71 and a third-rounder at 97, giving Kansas City five picks in the top 100.
How is this draft class shaping up?
There is still plenty of time for evaluations to change, as has already happened since the college season started two months ago, but it seems that what this class lacks in standout prospects at the top it makes up for in depth. There has already been movement at the top, with preseason #1 Jace LaViolette, an outfielder at Texas A&M, struggling enough this spring to potentially be an option for a team like Kansas City near the end of the first round.
There’s a lack of polished college hitters at the top of the class, with only a handful that have a shot at going in the top five. That group is deep, however, with a plethora of interesting prospects that will be available in the second and third rounds. Many first-round picks will likely go to prep position players, of which there are plenty, particularly shortstops. College pitching looked like a weakness earlier this year, but it has improved as guys have popped up with strong springs. This class also seems somewhat light on prep pitchers.
How could the Royals approach this draft?
Given the lack of slam-dunk prospects at the top, this isn’t such a bad year for the Royals to pick near the back of the first round. In fact, with two picks in the top-28 and five in the top-100, they are well-positioned to take advantage of the depth of this class. Eric Longenhagen mentioned them as a team that could look to spread their bonus pool around to several prep picks among the first few rounds. Kansas City did something similar in 2023, when they used three of their four top-100 picks on prep players.
It’s hard to look at trends in Kansas City’s draft behaviors given how personnel has changed over time. This will be the second draft with Brian Bridges as the scouting director. They used just one pick in the first 13 rounds on a prep player in last year’s draft, and I imagine that number will go up given the composition of this year’s class and Kansas City’s draft position. An interesting tidbit that (probably) doesn’t mean anything — going back to 2014, the Royals have alternated every year between taking a college player or prep player with their top pick. If this trend continues, expect Kansas City to select a prep player 23rd overall.
Who could the Royals target in the first round?
We will have plenty of articles over the months leading up the draft detailing potential targets. In the meantime, here are a few players that I think have basically no chance of falling to Kansas City:
- Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (OK): Big power from the left side, could be the first prep bat off the board and has a case as the 1-1.
- Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State: Polished lefty with a good track record in the ACC. Safe, quick-mover that will go early.
- Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA): 6’4” power righty with strong secondaries, probably the best prep pitcher in the class.
- Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State: Large-framed shortstop with power and strong bat-to-ball.
- Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest: Slick-fielding shortstop that makes a ton of contact with developing power.
If I did this same exercise two months from now, the list of guys that have no shot at falling to #23 would be much longer, but right now there is a real lack of consensus at the top of this draft class. Stay tuned over the next few months as we look deeper on potential options for the Royals near the end of the first round.