The Brewers are coming off a spanking by the Yankees.
The Royals will be tested early as 20 of their first 23 games will come against 2024 playoff teams, including three against the Milwaukee Brewers this week. The Brewers won 93 games last year and were two out away from advancing to the NLCS before they blew the lead and the series to the Mets.
But gone from that team are All-Star closer Devin Williams and star shortstop Willy Adames. The team is also suffering a rash of pitcher injuries that has left them depleted. And they just got their butts spanked by the Yankees, giving up 36 runs in three games.
All statistics from 2024
Kansas City Royals (1-2) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (0-3) at American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Royals: 4.54 runs scored/game (14th in MLB), 3.98 runs allowed/game (6th)
Brewers: 4.80 runs scored/game (6th), 3.96 runs allowed/game (5th)
The Brewers will try to cover the loss of Adams by sliding promising young Joey Ortiz back to shortstop and playing journeymen Oliver Dunn and Vinny Capra at third. William Contreras was the most valuable catcher in baseball last year by fWAR and ended last year hitting .279/.393/.553 over the final two months. Christian Yelich hit .311/.409/.503 against right-handers last year. Jackson Chourio became just the third hitter to post a 20/20 season by age 20, joining Vada Pinson and Mike Trout.
Rhys Hoskins enjoyed his fifth 20+ home run season last year, but had the eighth-highest strikeout rate in baseball and the fourth-lowest batting average of any qualified hitter. Sal Frelick was one of the hardest hitters to strike out last year, and is off to a good start hitting 5-for-11 (.455).
Last year the Brewers had the second-best walk rate in baseball. They also had the second-most steals with nine players in double-digits, led by Brice Turang with 50. The Brewers are a good-fielding team, finishing third in the league in Outs Above Average last year. Sal Frelick and Brice Turang each won Gold Gloves last year.
All statistics from 2024
The Brewers rotation is decimated right now. Jose Quintana came to camp late and isn’t ready to start the season, Brandon Woodruff is working back from shoulder surgery and should be back by May, and the team is without Tobias Myers, Aaron Ashby, and DL Hall. Aaron Civale left his last start after three innings with a hamstring injury. So they don’t know who will start on Tuesday – perhaps it will be first baseman Jake Bauers, who already has two relief appearances this year.
Elvin Rodríguez spent the last two years pitching for the Yakult Swallows in Japan, primarily as a reliever. He has eight games of MLB experience, posting a 10.62 ERA for the Tigers in 29 2⁄3 innings in 2022, and making one appearance in 2023 with the Rays. Back then, he primarily threw a 94 mph fastball, with a slider and change.
Ace Freddy Peralta starts on Wednesday, the only bright spot in the rotation right now. He gave up just four hits and two runs while striking out eight in five innings on Opening Day against the Yankees. He had the tenth-highest strikeout rate in baseball last year and finished sixth in the National League in overall strikeouts. Opponents hit just .162 against his curveball last year and his change up has a 36 percent whiff rate.
All statistics from 2024
Last year the Brewers had the second-best bullpen ERA at 3.11 with the eighth-best walk rate. Aside from losing Williams, they return most of the key components including Trevor Megill, who saved 21 games in 24 opportunities with his 98 mph fastball. Former Royals reliever Joel Payamps has dramatically increased his strikeout rate in Milwaukee, turning into a serviceable reliever although he retired just five of the seven hitters he faced on Sunday. Lefties hit just .198/.232/.275 against Jared Koenig last year. Connor Thomas, a Rule 5 pick selected from the Cardinals, leads the league in runs allowed with eight, all given up in a two-inning relief stint on Saturday.
All statistics from 2024
The Royals took two of three from the Brewers at home last year, and nearly swept them had it not been for a ninth-inning Willy Adames home run off James McArthur. The Royals are facing a pretty demoralized and beat-up Brewers team early in the schedule, but this is still a talented team that could fight back.