Can The Royals (Mostly) Run It Back?

The 2025 plan is very similar to the 2024.

The success plan for the Kansas City Royals in 2024 was pretty simple. Have good starting pitchers every day, let Bobby, Salvy, and Vinnie power the offense, rebuild the bullpen, and hope everything else works out.

The plan worked far better than any of us expected. The goal was not to be a laughingstock. By June, the goal was to win the division. Ultimately, Kansas City improved by 30 games, winning more games than in any season since 2015, and delivered a postseason appearance for just the 3rd time this century.

But everything went right. The starters that were supposed to make Kansas City’s rotation respectable ended up having two Cy Young finalists and four top 25 fWAR arms. Bobby not only had the best fWAR season in Royals history but one of the greatest fWAR seasons ever by a shortstop. At 34 and coming off the worst season of his career, Salvador Perez had one of the best years at the plate. And along with Vinnie Pasquantino, the middle of Kansas City’s order was one of the best in baseball with runners in scoring position.

To put it in simpler terms, everything went right in 2024 for the Royals. Even the bullpen came together when John Schreiber figured it out late, Kris Bubic came back from injury, and J.J. found his closer in Lucas Erceg.

It was a magical season of fate. And according to J.J., they want to run it back. After re-signing Michael Wacha and trading Brady Singer for Jonathan India, Picollo said he was mostly done adding pieces.

He wasn’t lying. Since then, the only players he has added are left-handed-hitting utility players on minor league deals – Cavan Biggio, Harold Castro, and Braden Shewmake.

That means that much of the outfield that put together the worst wRC+ in the American League will be back. India and Michael Massey could mix things up by shifting to left field, but at the very least, Kansas City seems content to run Kyle Isbel and Hunter Renfroe back out every day in 2025.

The question is: will it work?

According to ZiPS, it is in the cards.

The Royals gained India (2.8 fWAR) and lost Brady Singer (2.5 fWAR). Ordinarily, we could call that a wash, but Kansas City was much more desperate for offensive production than a starting pitcher.

For the most part, though, Kansas City will depend on the production of every player that produced last year to remain competitive. The ZiPS projections think that is possible thanks to Bobby Witt Jr. and a strong starting rotation.

Still, if the Royals desire to win the division and find postseason success again, they have left themselves with a thin margin for error. Szymborski said as much in the ZiPS projection, saying it was “disappointing” that Kansas City didn’t attempt to upgrade its corner outfield spots. Instead, they’ll rely on MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe, two guys who struggled last season.

Like Szymborski, I would have liked to see Picollo and company address the corner outfield. Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, and even Jurickson Profar all signed reasonable deals. But they didn’t. Luis Robert is still a potential solution but would require Kansas City to give up minor league assets.

So, let’s assume they are running it back with what they have on hand. What is the success plan for 2025? It’s very similar to 2024.

Bobby needs to be a superstar

We know he is a superstar, but it took one of the best seasons in baseball history from a shortstop to power Kansas City to the playoffs. Let’s assume he isn’t going to do that every year. Even so, the Royals need him to play like a superstar, specifically at the plate.

Their second-best hitter is Salvador Perez, who will be 35 this season and has logged the most career innings behind the plate of any active player. Vinnie Pasquantino could take his spot (more on him to come) but has not hit like he was expected to since his rookie year.

After that, the bats in the lineup are question marks. The Royals cannot contend without Bobby being Bobby. That is obvious but still must be said.

The starting rotation needs to fend off regression

Four Royals starters started 29 games or more in 2024. Three of them had career years. The fourth was Singer, who is no longer employed by Kansas City. The rotation was the engine last season, ranking 2nd in baseball in fWAR. Wacha and Seth Lugo are going into their age 33 and 35 seasons, respectively. Cole Ragans has an injury history.

Despite those factors, ZiPS doesn’t project backbreaking regression. The arms in that rotation should still be really good, and they’ll need to be in 2025.

Vinnie Pasquantino needs to hit

We all knew Bobby and the starting rotation needed to be great again. Now, onto the others, starting with Vinnie. We know what we are getting out of Bobby and Salvy is playing with house money at 35. But Vinnie, while being a part of Kansas City’s offensive big three, has been a bit disappointing since 2023.

Among first basemen with at least 800 plate appearances during that span, Vinnie ranks 22/31 in wRC+. It still makes him one of the only above-league-average hitters on the Royals, but they need more.

His walk rate of 11.7% as a rookie fell to 7.2% in 2024, lower than free-swinging Bobby’s 8.0 mark and his SLG% ranked 49th in baseball. Vinnie is as pure of a hitter as Kansas City has had in some time, and if they are going to run it back with this group, they need him to take a step.

Everybody else needs to fill in the gaps

The Royals chose to lean on Melendez, Renfroe, and Maikel Garcia, two of whom Kansas City may still see as future starters, along with India. MJ has shown flashes of being a productive hitter, while Garcia is one of the best defenders in baseball

Massey took a huge step last year but still posted a sub-.300 OBP. The Royals found their closer in Lucas Erceg, but the rest of the bullpen is a bit of a question mark, especially with Bubic potentially moving back into the rotation.

Outside of Bobby, Salvy, Vinnie, Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, and Erceg, almost every other player on this team is some form of question mark. It’s unreasonable to expect jumps from everybody, but Kansas City will rely on those guys to pick up the slack. We may not be thrilled that Picollo wasn’t very active in free agency, but according to ZiPS, the roster can still compete.

They just need a lot of things to go right. Again.