The Royals and Guardians are both looking to return to the post-season.
Observers around baseball thumbed their nose at the American League Central at the outset of the season, figuring the small market clubs would not be able to keep pace with the high-spending coastal teams. But four of the five Central teams ended up in the post-season, including the Guardians and Royals. Each fell in the post-season to the big market Yankees, but that left them each yearning for another shot at contention.
The Guardians took the division title, finishing 6.5 games better than the Royals, who tied for second. The Royals took 8 of the 13 head-to-head matchups however, scoring five or more runs six times.
All statistics from 2024
Cleveland Guardians (92-69) vs. Kansas City Royals (86-76) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Guardians: 4.40 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 3.86 runs allowed/game (3rd)
Royals: 4.54 runs scored/game (14th in MLB), 3.98 runs allowed/game (6th)
The Guardians are without four of the top eight most valuable position players from a year ago. They traded away second baseman Andrés Giménez, first baseman Josh Naylor, and infielder Tyler Freeman, and David Fry is out for months after elbow surgery. But they will return MVP candidate José Ramírez, who has been a thorn in the side of the Royals. The Guardians also welcomed back Carlos Santana for his third stint with the team. Last year with the Twins the one-time Royals switch-hitter enjoyed his best OPS+ since 2019.
As they always do, the Guardians will be relying on the farm system to produce more talent. They are expecting first baseman Kyle Manzardo to take a step forward after the former top 100 prospect hit .267/.398/.548 with 20 home runs in 83 games at Triple-A last year. Slugger Jhonkensy Noel hit a big home run in the ALCS against the Yankees last year, but will need more consistency to be a regular power threat. The Guardians will have a full season from Lane Thomas after picking him up at the trade deadline last season, and they reacquired Nolan Jones from the Rockies last week, helping them shore up a thin outfield if he can revert to his 2023 numbers.
All statistics from 2024
Starting pitching has long been a strength for Cleveland, but it was a weakness last year as they had the seventh-highest starting pitching ERA (4.40) in baseball. That was despite a strong season from Tanner Bibee, who finished with the 20th most fWAR by any starting pitcher. He finished ninth in the American League in strikeouts, and the club rewarded him with a five-year, $48 million contract after the season. The Guardians won three of the four starts he made against the Royals, although he had a 4.09 ERA against KC. Opponents hit just .141 against his cutter last year with a 36.8 percent whiff rate. Update: Bibee has been scratched from the start today and Ben Lively will start.
Gavin Williams missed the beginning of last season with an elbow injury and had mixed results down the stretch. He underperformed his FIP, due in part to a high walk rate. His 96.6 mph fastball is one of the fastest by a starter but opponents hit .288 against it. He gave up just four hits and three runs in 12 innings in two starts against the Royals.
Cleveland acquired Luis L. Ortiz in a three-way trade with the Pirates last winter after he enjoyed a breakout season. He made 15 starts and 22 relief appearances, but his numbers were very similar in each role. Opponents hit just .201 against him as a starter, but he had a low strikeout rate. The 26-year-old relies a lot on his slider, which had a 31 percent whiff rate last year.
All statistics from 2024
The strength of the Guardians last year was definitely the bullpen. They lead all of baseball with the lowest ERA by a good margin at 2.57 with the lowest home run rate. Gone are Nick Sandlin, Scott Barlow, Pedro Avila, and Eli Morgan, but the Guardians picked up former Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald coming off a rough 2024 season.
Returning are Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin, who were all among the eleven lowest bullpen ERAs in baseball last year. Clase led the league in saves for the third consecutive year and had the fourth-lowest walk rate among relievers. Smith was the most valuable reliever in baseball by fWAR and was one of six relievers to make at least 50 appearances and strike out over 100 hitters. Lefties hit just .143/.220/.165 against Herrin. Triston McKenzie was demoted to the bullpen after a rough season as a starter. Former Royals pitcher Jakob Junis made the Guardians bullpen after spending last year in Milwaukee and Cinnnati.
All statistics from 2024
If the Royals want to show last year was no fluke, they’ll be tested early and often. Of the first 23 games of the season 20 are against teams that made the playoff last year, including this series against the Guardians. The two teams are interesting contrasts – the Royals excel at starting pitching, the Guardians at relief pitching. With offense typically slow early in the season, this could well come down to Royals relievers and Guardians starters.