The playoff race is getting tighter, but the Royals are still in good position.
The Royals are currently in position for a playoff spot, but things have gotten tighter in the last few days after dropping two games to the charging Tigers. Kansas City has dropped three games in a row, with stranded baserunners being the major theme for the losses. Royals hitters have gone 6-for-32 with runners in scoring position over the last three games.
Despite the slump, they are still in good position to make the playoffs. The Royals have a three-game lead over the Tigers for a playoff spot with just ten games to play and the Twins also chasing them. Fangraphs has their odds to make the playoffs at 93 percent, Baseball Prospectus has it at 91 percent.
The Tigers have to finish four games better than the Royals over the final ten games, because Kansas City has the tiebreaker. Detroit still has a tough trip to Baltimore this weekend, followed by a homestand with the Rays and an easy series against the White Sox. The Royals host the Giants this weekend before going on the road to face a losing Nationals club and a banged-up Braves team that is fading from the playoff picture. The Twins also trail the Royals by 1.5 games and have two more road games in Cleveland and a weekend series in Boston, before returning home for the Marlins and Orioles.
Baseball is a game of ups and downs. The Royals have lost three in a row – they won seven of nine before that. And before that they had a seven-game losing streak. And before that they won 10 of 13. They aren’t the only team like this. The Yankees have the best overall record this year in the league, but they’ve had slumps where their fans wondered what the heck was wrong with them. The Astros got off to a dreadful start. The Guardians went 12-17 in August.
In baseball, your momentum is only as good as that day’s starting pitcher. And the Royals have good starting pitchers! Their 3.54 ERA from starters is second-best in baseball. And they’re not wearing down – they have a 2.73 ERA in September.
Zoom out, and you see the Royals have been a pretty good team for awhile now.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t real concerns, of course. The team was one of the best hitting teams with runners in scoring position most of the year, batting .284 in those situations overall, but in the last month it has become a problem. Since Vinnie Pasquantino exited with a broken thumb on August 29, Royals hitters have hit just 26-forr-127 (.205) with runners on scoring position. But really that is just a symptom of being bad overall in the last month – the offense as a whole is hitting .216/.282/.342 since losing Vinnie, averaging just 3.47 runs-per-game. Only the White Sox have been worse offensively over that time.
The bullpen still has issues and has lost Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and James McArthur to injuries, although they weren’t contributing much this season anyway. The relief staff has pitched a bit better in September – they actually have the fifth-best strikeout rate in baseball this month. In a short series, having arms like Alec Marsh and possibly Brady Singer in the pen could be valuable. But the Royals have to get there first.
The season is now a week-and-a-half-long sprint to the finish line, and the Royals have a head start on the Twins and Tigers. Anything can happen in sports, but the Royals are a legit good team that has battled back from losing slumps before this season. It’s not time for Royals fans to hold onto their butts quite yet, but the boys will need to play some ball the last ten games.