How much time should we expect Jac Caglianone to spend in the minors?

When can we see his power in Kansas City?

The Royals offense went into a tailspin last September that has carried over into this year. They are averaging on 3.06 runs-per-game – only the Rockies have scored fewer runs this year. Royals hitters are collectively hitting .208/.276/.312 – only the Pirates and White Sox have a worse OPS.

The glaring hole has been in the outfield, which was weak last year, and went largely unaddressed in the off-season. Royals outfielders are hitting just .184/.255/.263 this year, the second-worst OPS in baseball.

But there is hope. Down on the farm, the muscle-bound Jac Caglianone has gone viral with tape-measure home runs and jaw-dropping exit velocities.

Caglianone has held his own playing for the Double-A Northwest Arkansas Naturals, hitting .268/.347/.537 with three home runs and six walks in 10 games with a 22.4 percent strikeout rate. Just a year ago, Caglianone was playing college ball at Florida, but now he has Royals fans counting the days until he is in the big leagues. How many days will that be?

I went back and look at college hitters taken in the first six picks in the draft between 2014 and 2023. Obviously the lost 2020 minor league season threw a wrench in the development of some players. Injuries were also a factor for players like Nick Senzel, Heston Kjerstad, and Austin Martin.

Regardless, the average hitter from this stretch was in the big leagues after around 164 games in the minors. Some were demoted after that, but it only took about a full season of play before they made their MLB debut.

The quickest promotion was Wyatt Langford with the Rangers, who made the Opening Day roster last year after just 44 minor league games and enjoyed a 3.9 rWAR season with 16 homers and 19 steals his rookie year.

Kyle Schwarber also provides a pretty good comp for Caglianone. Both were left-handed hitters with prodigious power. After playing for Indiana, Schwarber hit .344/.428/.634 with 18 HR in 72 games in A-ball. The next year he spent 58 games at Double-A where he hit .320/.438/.579 with 13 home runs in 58 games. He was promoted to Triple-A, and after three weeks there he was in the big leagues, helping the Cubs in their post-season stretch.

What will we be looking for to know if Caglianone is ready? We already knew he had 80-grade power, so the tape measure home runs are not really a surprise. What is at question is whether Caglianone will make enough contact on pitches, particularly as pitchers work around him more. Keith Law at The Athletic had questions about Caglianone had concerns about his chase rate as an amateur. But in a recent scouting report, he came away impressed at his improvements.

Caglianone pulled his hands in and absolutely unloaded on the ball, with unbelievable power; most hitters would either swing around and hook the ball, or keep their hands inside but only be able to push it the other way. Caglianone took good at-bats the whole game, including an eight-pitch walk where he spoiled a couple of pitches and then took a pitch fairly close to the zone for ball four — a good sign, even if it’s just one plate appearance, because his tendency to chase stuff out of the zone was by far his biggest flaw as a hitter in college.

So far his strikeout rate is below league-average, so he doesn’t appear to be getting fooled that much.

My best guess it that Caglianone is at Northwest Arkansas through July. If he is raking at that point, he may spend a perfunctory few weeks in Triple-A Omaha, and if that isn’t overwhelming, that will be enough time for him to join the Royals before the season ends. He already spent 29 games with Quad Cities last year, so by July, he should have around 120 minor league games under his belt.

Hopefully, the Royals offense can manage enough that the team is still in contention at that point, and he can provide a jolt to the lineup.

But Royals fans are finding it hard to wait.