The Mark Canha acquisition challenges Renfroe.
Going into the offseason, outfield was a clear need for the Royals. They made a few rumored bids to improve their outfield situation, but nothing really came to fruition. As a result, according to FanGraphs’ depth charts Hunter Renfroe is once again slated to get about half of the plate appearances in right field in 2025. That tracks with 2024, when he got 407 PAs and hit .228/.300/.399 for a 95 wRC+ and 0.1 fWAR. Woof.
However, late in Spring Training, the Royals made a move to go get Mark Canha. Both men have accrued over 3000 PAs in the bigs, so at this point we pretty much know who they are. There’s not really much upside. Canha has more positional flexibility, but clearly the Royals acquired him with corner outfield in mind (given MJ Melendez’s struggles).
Both are right-handed hitters, but for his career Canha has no platoon split. He’s a solidly above-average hitter against lefties and righties. Renfroe does have a platoon split and is weak to RHP. Both guys have long careers, so if you want to go off more recent data…the stories are kind of flipped. Renfroe was below average against both LHP and RHP last year, but he had no platoon split. Canha still had a 124 wRC+ against LHP and was about at Renfroe’s level against RHP.
Neither one appears to be a plus as a defender in right field, but for his part Canha may end up being the better fielder. He’s also a much better baserunner. He’s not exactly a stolen base threat, but he’s a positive in that department.
So…what exactly does Renfroe do that’s better than Canha? Power on contact is the only thing. I am reminded quite often that it wasn’t that long ago that Renfroe had a 124 wRC+ (2022), and he dealt with injuries in 2024 that sapped his performance. But you know what? Canha had a 126 wRC+ in that same year (2022) and has been better than Renfroe each of the past two years.
I honestly think Renfroe’s leash will be quite short this season. Historical performance, projections, and defensive value all seem to favor Canha over Renfroe. Canha’s plate discipline is superior, and Renfroe’s line from 2024 is propped up by a torrid June/July.
I get that the narrative is Canha will platoon with MJ Melendez, and yes there’s definitely a fit there. But I do not want to ignore the fact that Canha lurks behind Renfroe for a full-time job. Renfroe needs to hit at least an average bat to keep his starting role, and he’s probably got to do more. He’s got to hit with authority. He’s capable of doing it, but he’s gotta consistently show it on the field. Otherwise the Royals will just start going with the guy who gets on base more and maybe Renfroe becomes the Melendez platoon guy.