It’s time
All throughout the offseason, I defended MJ Melendez’s roster spot. I argued that he deserved one more shot to prove he could be a valuable hitter on the big league roster. FanGraphs had him as a 55 FV prospect when he graduated to the big leagues – that’s very good. The year before he debuted, he led all of the minor leagues in home runs hit with 41. Other than Khalil Lee, he had the best wRC+ of any hitter in the upper minors. (Though, of course, look out how Lee turned out…)
But beyond that, Melendez had shown flashes of success at the big league level. In each of his first three big league seasons, he’d hit below-average overall but had long stretches where he’d put it together and hit the tar out of the ball for a while. He walked a fair bit in his first two seasons and continually improved as a defender. There were reasons to hope he’d eventually figure it out, so long as the Royals weren’t relying on him to figure it out immediately.
Unfortunately, the Royals failed to significantly improve their outfield picture during the offseason and Melendez was given the Opening Day starting left field job. Since then, he’s turned in a disastrous start to the season. He has a -14 wRC+ through 14 games to start the year. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but it is ridiculously hard to hit that poorly for even that long. His ability to take walks began to diminish last season, and this year he can’t even put the bat on the ball. His 36.4% strikeout rate is in the bottom 10 in MLB for those with at least 40 at-bats.
And, unlike how some periods in the past could be described, this isn’t bad luck. Per Baseball Savant, his xWOBA is second percentile. His xBA is first percentile. The only slightly red bars on his player page are bat speed – which means nothing if you can’t make contact with the ball – and, bizarrely, fielding range. He looks absolutely helpless at the plate. He looks so bad that I can make arguments for why he has to be demoted for basically every different way there is to see Melendez.
You believe he’ll never succeed
If you don’t think Melendez has it in him to be a good big league ballplayer, then you don’t need to be convinced he doesn’t belong on the big league roster; you have to be convinced not to cut him entirely. Here’s the thing: his contract is already guaranteed, and you can demote him to Omaha at absolutely no opportunity cost. If he somehow figures things out there and people get hurt in Kansas City, you can recall him. If no progress is made you simply non-tender him in the offseason and he looks for opportunities elsewhere. Maybe he’s a Ryan O’Hearn and he can figure it out with another team, but you will have given him every opportunity to figure it out here first and that’s all you can do.
You believe he has nothing to prove at Omaha
Sure, yeah, every time he’s been to Omaha since 2021, he’s destroyed the pitching there. But that was before the fairly drastic swing changes he made during the offseason. Additionally, at some point, you’ve got to give the guy a shot to build some confidence back up. A demotion can be demoralizing, but so is flailing helplessly at every pitch and seeing fans hate on you all over the internet. Give the guy a break, let him try to figure himself out somewhere outside the spotlight of a competitive MLB roster for a bit.
You think he’s a better option than Renfroe because at least he can field
You know that you can just get rid of them both, right?
Also, Renfroe has at least been taking reasonably professional at-bats. Sure, he can’t get a hit either, but he can take a walk. He’s not chasing or whiffing as often as Melendez.
But seriously, just get rid of them both. John Rave and Drew Waters can both start in the outfield, and the situation almost certainly can’t end up more dire than 114% and 95% worse than league average.
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images
At some point, you have to consider the message the organization is sending to the team. For some players, it apparently doesn’t matter how poorly you perform, you’ll be given chance after chance. While guys like John Rave languish in Omaha despite tearing the cover off the ball and Tyler Tolbert is only allowed to pinch-run unless the game is already mostly out of reach. That doesn’t feel fair or good. Are the Royals trying to win, or are they trying to reward guys who work really hard even if they don’t have sufficient ability? Unless I’m supposed to believe that none of Drew Waters, Tyler Tolbert, Tyler Gentry, and John Rave are trying?
It all really boils down to one thing. MJ Melendez might be the best guy the team has ever employed. He could work harder than any three guys in baseball. He could take batting practice until he’s blue in the face and none of it would matter.
If the Royals don’t want to recreate the above photo from immediately following last year’s ALDS Game Four every season, MJ Melendez can’t be on the major league roster anymore.