The potential is there, but MJ is running out of time to show it
MJ Melendez has started his fourth year in the Major Leagues, his age-26 season. From a position change of catcher to outfield because of struggles behind the dish, to declining every year at the plate. It’s simply time for MJ Melendez to step up and prove to the Royals he can be a valuable contributor to the team.
Statistically, MJ on offense has gone backwards every year. In 129 games in 2022, he hit .217 with 131 strikeouts, but he walked 66 times, which was very encouraging at the time because he had solid plate discipline. In the ‘22 season, he also hit 18 homers, 21 doubles and 3 triples. The 2022 season is also the only time that Melendez has had a positive wins above replacement (WAR) at 0.5.
In the 2023 season, Melendez hit a career-best .235 at the plate, but he struck out a career-high 170 times and walked 62 times. He hit 29 doubles, 5 triples and 16 homers as well. This is the year that Melendez started to transition to a full-time outfielder, so as fans, we had to give him some grace at the plate with the added pressure of learning a whole new position. MJ ended with a -0.4 WAR on the season.
Last year was supposed to be the breakout season. He was getting comfortable in the outfield, so he could produce at the plate. And after a hot start to the season, it looked that way for Melendez and the Royals. However, Melendez would struggle mightily the rest of the season. Granted, he hit some big-time home runs in big-time spots, and he made some nice plays in the outfield, but this was his worst year in the majors. He hit only .206, his on-base percentage was only .273, after being nearly .400 his first two seasons. The reason that took a big dip was because he struck out 113 times, but only walked 35 times, his plate discipline had gone away. He did hit 17 homers, 23 doubles and 3 triples. He posted a career worst -0.9 WAR.
And now we come to the first six games of this season. In 13 at-bats this season, Melendez has a single, and six strikeouts. He has walked and been hit by a pitch, but with this new stance, he looks lost. According to Baseball Savant, there are some interesting numbers on Melendez and his stance.
First thing is that MJ is become a straight-up pull hitter, at the beginning of his MLB career, he would try to use all fields, but every following year, he has become more of a pull hitter. Anyway, about the stance, it was something that excited a lot of people this offseason, thinking this would solve the issues for Melendez. Since 2023, Savant has tracked average bat speed, which is how fast are you swinging the bat. Melendez has increased every season, this year so far swinging it at 73.7 mph, compared to 72.8 last season. In turn his swing is a tad bit longer, currently at 7.8, compared to 7.7 last season.
Now to the exact batting stance. Melendez stands a little bit closer to the pitcher now compared to last season. In 2023, he was 26.9 inches, which means he was way closer to the pitcher. Last season, he was at 29 inches, so he was more toward the back of the box, trying to see the pitch longer. So far, this year he is at 28.5 inches, so he is trying to scoot back up and find a happy medium. Remember, 2023 Melendez had some of his best numbers.
Melendez also stands further away from the plate, this year he is 29.7 inches off the plate, compared to 28.1 the previous two seasons. So, he’s not crowding the plate as much. Finally, his stance is more closed off than it has been. The last two seasons, his stance angle was 33 degrees and 36 degrees open, this year, it’s only 13 degrees open.
It’s been an up-and-down four seasons for MJ Melendez so far, as he hasn’t really found who he is at the plate yet. But with high expectations for the team this year, and the Royals desperately needed outfield production, Melendez needs to step up or get it figured out in Omaha.