Who will start the year on the 26-man roster?
By the time you’re reading this, there is less than a fortnight before pitchers and catchers report to Surprise, Arizona to begin the Royals’ Spring Training. The Royals made a couple of really splashy moves at the beginning of the offseason and then went kind of quiet. We’re rapidly approaching the point in which I will be forced to issue an apology to everyone I convinced – along with myself – that the Royals were willing to spend reasonable amounts of cash to keep the team competitive for years to come.
But, let’s set that aside for now and instead spend some time trying to get excited about the team they are fielding. One that FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski and his ZiPS projection system believe can win a similar number of games to last season – which was enough to get them into the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade.
And so, I present to you, a pre-preseason roster projection that will definitely age extremely well!
Starting rotation
Cole Ragans
Seth Lugo
Michael Wacha
Kris Bubic
Michael Lorenzen
The top three in the starting rotation are essentially locks. Anyone who doesn’t have those players, and in that order, is being contrary for the sake of contrariness. One of my calling cards for years now has been my belief that Kris Bubic can be an effective starter. Nothing about last season convinced me he is anything less than a very good candidate for the position again and I think he will (perhaps narrowly) beat out Alec Marsh for the role. I think he’ll be the fourth starter in order for the Royals to avoid pitching their two lefties in a row, even though they bring very different arsenals to the mound.
Starting lineup
DH Jonathan India
SS Bobby Witt Jr.
1B Vinnie Pasquantino
C Salvador Perez
2B Michael Massey
LF Taylor Ward
RF MJ Melendez
3B Maikel Garcia
CF Kyle Isbel
The first draft of this lineup. This looked very different before the Carlos Estévez signing happened Wednesday night. I’ll talk about this more when I get to the bullpen section, but as things currently stand, the Royals have too many relievers and not enough places to put them and they need a bat. A trade has to happen. I think it will be Ward, but if it isn’t him, it’ll be someone else.
Bench
C Freddy Fermin
OF Hunter Renfroe
SUPER UTILITY PLAYER Cavan Biggio
OF Joey Wiemer
Freddy is basically a lock. Not much to say there.
Hunter Renfroe and Joey Wiemer make the team because of their contract and defensive ability respectively. I expect Renfroe to act as the short-side platoon partner for MJ Melendez and Michael Massey (Where India would move from DH to 2B.) Wiemer can play centerfield defensively and would fit nicely as Isbel’s short-side platoon partner. Unfortunately, this leaves Blanco back in Omaha, but as valuable as his speed is, the Royals lose roster flexibility by keeping all these platoon guys and something has to give. They’ve made it clear they don’t think Blanco belongs in centerfield and unless they just cut Renfroe – a move that seems exceptionally unlikely – there’s just no room.
The Royals made it pretty clear that they want a left-handed hitting utility infielder, and Biggio got the biggest pop from the team when he was added on a minor league deal so he would seem to be the early favorite.
The most likely change here would be Nick Loftin making it instead of Biggio, but then their bench would be entirely right-handed which is probably less than ideal. Nelson Velázquez, John Rave, Tyler Gentry, and Gavin Cross will all be looked at but there appears to be no room for them even without trading for an outfield bat. Blanco would be ahead of them in line, anyway.
Bullpen
First, the absolute, stone-cold locks.
Lucas Erceg
Carlos Estévez
John Schreiber
Alec Marsh
That leaves four spots open for others to take a shot. I’d bet on these four being the ones to make it:
Carlos Hernández
Daniel Lynch IV
Sam Long
Chris Stratton
You’ll notice that Hunter Harvey and Angel Zerpa are missing from both of these lists. That’s because I expect them to be a part of the trade(s) that happen to bring in that outfielder. But I’ll get to that in a minute. Kyle Wright is also missing, but I think he might start the year on the injured list.
In my mind, Estévez is the closer, Erceg is a fireman (much like he was before the playoffs for KC), Lynch and Schreiber divvy up the setup duties, Stratton and Marsh divvy up the long-man duties, and then Long and Hernández pitch in whatever spaces are left with opportunities to move up or down the pecking order depending on how everyone is performing. If I’m wrong and Wright is healthy, then Stratton might get cut and Wright steps into that role instead. If they’re dead set on playing Stratton because they’re paying him, Marsh could be demoted to make sure he stays stretched out as the next starter into the breach.
James McArthur, having one more option year, might miss the Opening Day roster but would likely be the first guy up in case of injury or ineffectiveness. If Wright starts the year on the injured list he can also step into the bullpen later as another replacement. I don’t see guys like Eric Cerantola, Noah Cameron, Evan Sisk, or even Steven Cruz making the Opening Day roster the way things stand, though all of them will probably get shots as the year goes on and injuries occur. Luinder Avila moved really fast through the system, last year, going all the way from High-A to finish 2023 to AAA to end 2024. But he struggled badly in Omaha, so he’s probably not all that close.
So let’s talk about that trade. I think what makes the most sense for Kansas City is Carter Jensen, Hunter Harvey, and Angel Zerpa to the Angels for Ward. I know that sounds a bit heavy, but the rumor has been the Angels are asking for a lot, and Baseball Trade Values indicates that’s a pretty fair deal. They’re not the be-all, end-all of trades but a lot of trades that end up happening do fit their model. Harvey for Starling Marte was also a deal that was discussed at one point, but the Royals might have to throw in someone else to convince the Mets to eat enough of that contract to make it make sense. BTV says Marte and his entire salary would still be an underpay for Harvey. So the willingness to do that deal might just not be there.
If you still don’t like that trade, I can’t exactly blame you. In a world where you could choose between Jurickson Profar/Ha-Seong Kim and Harvey versus Ward/Marte and Estévez, I think I’d prefer the former. Especially since the former scenario also lets you keep one of your three top-100 prospects in Carter Jensen at the cost of only a few extra million dollars on your payroll. Hopefully, the Royals can find a better deal than the one I’ve proposed. But only time will tell.
Anyway, that’s it. That’s your Kansas City Royals Opening Day roster. Feel free to bookmark this so you can praise me for my prescience once the team takes the field on March 27!