Will the Royals spend on any?
The World Series begins tomorrow, and immediately after they crown a champion, eligible players become free agents. The Royals were one of the most active teams last off-season, and GM J.J. Picollo has said he expects the same kind of financial flexibility from ownership this season.
Which free agents could the Royals bring in to help take them to the next level? Here are my rankings for this year’s free agents.
1. Juan Soto, outfielder
2024: .288/.419/.569 41 HR, 7.9 rWAR
Age: 26
Players typically don’t hit free agency this young, but Soto just turned 26 last week. He has already hit over 200 career home runs has led the league in walks three times, and has a .953 career OPS. He declined a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nationals two years ago, but seems likely to get a contract worth over $500 million, with some thinking it could approach Shohei Ohtani’s record-setting deal.
Prediction: Yankees, fourteen years, $560 million
2. Corbin Burnes, pitcher
2024: 15-9, 2.92 ERA 194.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 3.4 rWAR
Age: 30
Burnes has been the second-most valuable pitcher in baseball since 2020, according to Fangraphs WAR. He won the Cy Young in 2021 with the lowest ERA in the league, then led the league in strikeouts the next season. A move to the American League didn’t seem to phase him and he’s been a workhorse in an era where few pitchers reach 200 innings pitched. It’s possible Burnes could become just the third pitcher (who doesn’t hit!) to get a $300+ million contract, joining Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Gerrit Cole.
Prediction: Dodgers, eight years, $300 million
3. Alex Bregman, third baseman
2024: .260/.315/.452 26 HR, 4.1 rWAR
Age: 30
Bregman finished second in MVP voting in 2019 with a 41-home run season where he led the league in walks. Since then he’s been a solid, but not spectacular hitter, batting .261/.350/.445 in the last five seasons combined. His numbers are pretty consistent – he gives you around 25 home runs, a .350 on-base, and 4 WAR every season. He seems likely to get a deal close to what Anthony Rendon received a few years ago.
Prediction: Astros, seven years, $220 million
4. Max Fried, pitcher
11-10, 3.25 ERA, 174.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 3.5 rWAR
Age: 30
Fried’s 3.06 ERA since 2019 is the eighth-lowest among starting pitchers. He had a down year by his standards, but was still eighth among pitchers in rWAR. Fried had Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer, and missed significant time in 2023 with a forearm strain, so there may be some injury risk, but he is one of the top left-handers in the game and should get something close to Aaron Nola’s deal with Philly.
Prediction: Rangers, seven years, $180 million
5. Willy Adames, shortstop
.251/.331/.462 32 HR, 3.1 rWAR
Age: 29
Adames has never been an All-Star, but he’s a young shortstop coming off a 32-home run season for a division winner. The right-handed hitting infielder strikes out a ton and won’t hit for much average, but he brings tremendous power to a premium defensive position, and even stole a career-high 21 bases this year. His comp will likely be the deal signed by Dansby Swanson in Chicago.
Prediction: Dodgers, seven years, $177 million
6. Pete Alonso, first baseman
2024: .240/.329/.459 34 HR, 2.6 rWAR
Age: 29
Alonso won a home run title in 2019, his rookie season, and only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs in the last six years. Alonso just posted the worst OPS of his career, but it was still good for a 123 OPS+. He’s a four-time All-Star who has hit 40+ home runs three times. He reportedly rejected a seven-year, $158 million offer from the Mets, but I wouldn’t expect him to get much more considering what Freddie Freeman got from the Dodgers.
Prediction: Mets, six years, $170 million
7. Blake Snell, pitcher
2024: 5-3 3.12 ERA, 104 IP, 12.5 K/9, 2.1 rWAR
Age: 31
Snell is a two-time Cy Young winner, but he found a soft market for his services last year and signed a two-year deal with the Giants that he will likely opt out of this off-season. The lack of interest was due to exorbitant contract demands and some injury risk, as Snell has made 30+ starts in a season just twice in his career. He missed spring training this year and got off to a late start, also missing time to a groin injury, limiting him to just 20 starts. His injury concerns probably warrant a shorter deal than other top-shelf pitchers, but with a higher average annual value.
Prediction: Mets, three years, $110 million with an opt out
8. Anthony Santander, outfielder
2024: .235/.308/.506 44 HR, 2.9 rWAR
Age: 30
Santander had a breakout season for the Orioles, finishing third in baseball in home runs and he might have hit more if he didn’t hit in a park so tough on right-handed power hitters. He cut down on his strikeouts this year, but doesn’t hit for much average and is a below-average defender in the corners. The switch-hitter could find a market not quite as robust as he expects, but I would still expect a $100+ million deal.
Prediction: Giants, five years, $105 million
9. Cody Bellinger, outfielder
2024: .266/.325/.426 18 HR, 2.2 rWAR
Age: 29
Bellinger has two years and $52 million owed him by the Cubs, but is expected to opt out this winter. It has been an odd career for Bellinger, who won NL MVP at age 23 in 2019, was non-tendered after a disappointing 2022 season, then bounced back to finish 10th in MVP voting in 2023. This year he was just a solid above-average bat, but he is still under 30 and is capable of playing centerfield, a position the Cubs already have filled for next year with Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Prediction: Padres, five years, $100 million
10. Teoscar Hernández, outfielder
2024: .272/.339/.501 33 HR, 4.3 rWAR
Age: 32
Hernández surprised many by signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers after a down year in 2023, but his gamble paid off. He hit a career-high in home runs and earned his second All-Star appearance, winning the Home Run Derby. He is another year deeper into his 30s, and his defense continues to slide, but he’s still a very good power bat for the middle of a lineup.
Prediction: Nationals, four years, $90 million
11. Jack Flaherty, pitcher
2024: 13-7 3.17 ERA 162 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.1 rWAR
Age: 29
Flaherty had a poor 2023 season and signed a one-year, $14 million deal with the Tigers. It was a “make good” deal and he made good, posting his best ERA and strikeout rate since 2019. Flaherty has been around so long it is surprising he is still not yet 30 years old. He can’t have a Qualifying Offer made to him, so he should be pretty attractive to teams, despite some health risks.
Prediction: Orioles, four years, $76 million
12. Tanner Scott, pitcher
2024: 22 SV 1.75 ERA 72 IP, 10.5 K/9, 3.9 rWAR
Age: 30
Scott has lowered his ERA in each of the last four years, taking it down to a minuscule 1.75 this year. He has been the most valuable reliever in baseball over the last two years with solid strikeout rates. The lefty had 22 saves in 24 opportunities this year, but reliever performance can be fickle.
Prediction: Yankees, four years, $70 million
13. Christian Walker, first baseman
2024: .251/.335/.468 26 HR, 2.6 rWAR
Age: 33
Walker wasn’t a regular til age 28, but he has become one of the best power-hitting first basemen in the game and was the anchor in the lineup for the 2023 pennant-winning Diamondbacks. His power numbers slumped a bit this year, but he has 95 home runs over the past three years and is a two-time Gold Glove winner to boot.
Prediction: Astros, three years, $66 million
14. Michael Wacha, pitcher
2024: 13-8 3.35 ERA 166.2 IP 7.8 K/9, 3.5 rWAR
Age: 33
Wacha has a $16 million player option he seems likely to decline in favor of what could be his last multi-year contract. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half and a big reason why the Royals turned their franchise around. He did post a below-average strikeout rate and his 166.2 innings this year were the most he had thrown since 2017. But despite his age, he should be in line to get something similar to what pitchers like Miles Mikolas and Chris Bassitt recently signed for.
Prediction: Royals, three years, $60 million
15. Ha-Seong Kim, shortstop
2024: .233/.330/.370 11 HR, 2.6 rWAR
Age: 29
Kim has a mutual option he will likely decline, making him a free agent. He posted his worst offensive numbers since coming stateside this year and missed the final six weeks with a shoulder injury that required surgery. But he is a slick fielder who stole 38 bases in 2023 and has decent power for a shortstop.
Prediction: Giants, four years, $60 million
16. Gleyber Torres, second baseman
2024: .257/.330/.378 15 HR, 1.8 rWAR
Age: 27
Torres hit 38 home runs in 2019, but his offensive numbers have slumped quite a bit since then. Still, he’s an average-to-above-average hitter with solid power for a second baseman, and he’s very young for a free agent.
Prediction: Mariners, four years, $58 million
17. Sean Manaea, pitcher
2024: 12-6 3.47 ERA 181.2 IP, 9.1 K/9, 3.0 rWAR
Age: 32
Manaea was on his fourth team in four years, but with the Mets this year he posted his best season since 2021, which will cause him to opt out of the second year of his deal. He has a bit of an inconsistent track record, but in a thin market he should net a multi-year deal.
Prediction: Mets, three years, $54 million
18. Tyler O’Neill, outfielder
2024: .241/.336/.511 31 HR, 2.7 rWAR
Age: 29
O’Neill is a weightlifting fanatic who saw gains with his second 30+ home run season. He wasn’t just a product of Fenway Park either – 27 of his 31 home runs would have been gone at Kauffman Stadium. He strikes out a lot and has trouble staying on the field, but O’Neill is one of the better power bats available this winter.
Prediction: Blue Jays, three years, $51 million
19. Nathan Eovaldi, pitcher
2024: 12-8 3.80 ERA 170.2 IP, 8.8 K/9, 2.2 rWAR
Age: 34
Eovaldi has a $20 million player option, but his performance is still good enough to warrant a short, multi-year deal. He hasn’t posted an ERA over four since 2019, but he also hasn’t made 30 starts in any of the last three seasons.
Prediction: Tigers, two years, $44 million
20. Luis Severino, pitcher
2024: 11-7 3.91 ERA, 182 IP 8.0 K/9, 1.6 rWAR
Age: 30
Severino bounced back from five years of injury-plagued seasons to become a solid starter for the Mets. That injury risk may inhibit his demand, but he was a two-time All-Star early in his career.
Prediction: Red Sox, three years, $42 million
21. Shane Bieber, pitcher
2024: 2-0 0.00 ERA, 12 IP, 15 K/9, 0.7 rWAR
Age: 29
Bieber won the Cy Young in the shortened 2020 season, but has made 30 starts just once since then, and pitched in just two games this year before needing Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the start of the season, but when healthy he has the upside of being among the best pitchers in baseball.
Prediction: Dodgers, two years, $38 million
22. Carlos Estévez, pitcher
2024: 26 SV 2.45 ERA, 55 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.2 rWAR
Age: 31
Estévez was an All-Star closer with the Angels in 2023, and posted the lowest ERA of his career this year, although his strikeout rate dropped significantly.
Prediction: Phillies, three years, $36 million
23. Yusei Kikuchi, pitcher
2024: 9-10 4.05 ERA 175.2 IP, 10.6 K/9, 1.3 rWAR
Age: 33
Kikuchi has gotten better with age, posting his best ERAs and strikeout rates the last two seasons.
Prediction: Angels, two years, $32 million
24. Clay Holmes, pitcher
2024: 30 SV 3.14 ERA 63 IP, 9.7 K/9, 0.7 rWAR
Age: 31
Holmes is a two-time All-Star, but led the league in blown saves and lost his closer’s role to Luke Weaver.
Prediction: Diamondbacks, three years, $30 million
25. Jurickson Profar, outfielder
2024: .280/.380/.459 24 HR , 3.7 rWAR
Age: 31
Profar made his MLB debut in 2012, but didn’t make an All-Star game until this year, when he had a late career-best season. He’s a versatile player who can get on base, but this year was likely an aberration.
Prediction: Cardinals, two years, $28 million
Others
Power hitters: Josh Bell, Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, Eloy Jiménez, J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson, Eugenio Suárez
Other potential starters: Harrison Bader, Michael Conforto, Max Kepler, Alex Verdugo
Bench pieces: Mark Canha, Paul DeJong, Joey Gallo, Randal Grichuk, Enrique Hernández, Jose Iglesias, Danny Jansen, Manuel Margot, Andrew McCutchen, Whit Merrifield, Tommy Pham, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, Jesse Winker
Rotation options: Patrick Corbin, Marco Gonzales, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Hendricks, Michael Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, Nick Martinez, Frankie Montas, Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana
Injury risk pitchers: Matthew Boyd, Walker Buehler, Alex Cobb, Clayton Kershaw, Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander
Other top relievers: Scott Barlow, Aroldis Chapman, Yimi García, Jeff Hoffman, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Jose Leclerc, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter, Hector Neris, David Robertson, Paul Sewald, Blake Treinen, Kirby Yates
Coming over from Asia: Hye-Seong Kim, Tomoyuki Sugano, and maybe Roki Sasaki?