Based on the prices being paid for starting pitching, it might make a lot of sense to swap pitching for outfield
Adding Seth Lugo last offseason might be the best decision the Royals made for 2024 if you count the Ragans trade as a 2023 move. Lugo has shown decisively in two years as a starter that he has what it takes to be number two or three starter in any rotation save maybe the Dodgers and Mariners. That also means he will opt out of his deal with the Royals at the end of 2025 if he stays healthy, so I decided to see what I thought one year of Seth Lugo might be worth on the trade market. I think such a trade could make the Royals better both now and in the future if they find the right partner.
If you look at starters being traded over the last couple of years, there is a wide range of outcomes. I am going to highlight some of those trades here first and see if we can get a feel for what Lugo could bring.
Dylan Cease
Cease is clearly better and younger than Lugo, though the 2023 campaign right before the trade was not his best. The Padres also got two years rather than the one that Lugo is locked up for. The Padres gave up four players for him. Drew Thorpe was the big one as a top 100 prospect on some lists, but they also gave up Samuel Zavala, Jairo Iriarte, and Steven Wilson. Zavala is a legit prospect, but very young and far away from big league ready. Iriarte is a live arm near big league ready, but I would guess destined for the bullpen or a fringy number five starter. Wilson was already a big-league bullpen piece, but seems to be trending the wrong direction. The Royals cannot get this big of a haul, but half of that for one year of Lugo, maybe.
Corbin Burnes
This is the other guy on the list that is clearly worth more than Lugo based on a stellar track record. Baltimore traded for him with one year to free agency, so the timing is similar. The Brewers’ return was Joey Ortiz and DL Hall along with the 34th pick in the 2024 draft. Ortiz was a near big league-ready shortstop with top 100 ratings and Hall was a fringe top 100 guy. That’s a pretty good haul for one year – two solid prospects and a pick.
Brady Singer
Royals fans know this one, but it is worth reminding everyone of it. Jonathan India is a solid big leaguer and the trade was two years of Singer for two years of India. A trade of Lugo should be able to get this or more even with only one year guaranteed.
Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin
Nestor Cortes is an interesting one this offseason. After 2022 he might have been looking more like Cease or Burnes, but his last two seasons have taken the shine off for sure. The Yankees had to throw in Durbin, a speedy utility sort, to get Devin Williams. One year of Cortes was not enough to get the elite bullpen arm. Williams will also be a free agent next offseason, but he has been one of the best in baseball out of the pen. Lugo should be able to get quite a bit more than one year of Devin Williams based on how much value good volume innings bring. I think this trade highlights how much more starters are valued, even mediocre ones.
Zach Eflin (and cash)
Now I think we are getting into the right territory value-wise. At the trade deadline, the Orioles added Eflin for the rest of 2024 and 2025. Lugo is a little older, but coming off a better season. I think these two should be valued similarly. Eflin got Tampa Bay Mac Horvath, Jackson Baumeister, and Matthew Etzel. Tampa definitely went for volume here with two decent prospects and Etzel, which I am not sure how exactly to value. He has been all right bouncing around the minors for a year and a half, but not sure he projects as likely being more than a fourth outfielder. If the Royals opted to go for one prospect over many, this says to me they could get near the top 100, though maybe not into it.
Yusei Kikuchi
Another trade deadline deal, but just for a rental. Kikuchi has been inconsistent as a major league pitcher, but was having success at the time of the trade and for the rest of the year. That netted him a 3 year, $63 million deal this offseason. In the trade, Toronto got back Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner. Bloss had recently been in the top 100 of a couple of places, and seemed like a lot to give for Kikuchi. This deal makes me hope for more out of a potential Lugo trade. Loperfido and Wagner are prospects too, though neither are super high level, they both are worth something and are not just filler. This sort of deal would be what the Royals are looking for if they parted with Lugo.
Jack Flaherty
Finally, the Flaherty deal at the deadline brought back Thayron Liranzo and Trey Sweeney. Both are solid prospects, but neither are spectacular. A partial year of Flaherty is not worth anywhere near a full year of Lugo though, so this is just another data point to figure out what value to expect.
After looking at these, and a few others, I think it might be hard to get exactly what the Royals might want out of a trade, but it is possible and worth pursuing. The types of players that would make it worth it, in my opinion, would be someone like outfielder Kevin Alcantara. From this survey of trades, Lugo is probably not enough. Still, the Cubs have Pete Crow-Armstrong in center already and Alcantara might be getable. Six years of a solid center fielder would be very valuable and allow Kyle Isbel to be used in a way more strategic manner. To get Alcantara I would be willing to add Freddy Fermin or Carter Jensen as the Cubs could use some catching.
The Orioles are another team I would be targeting, rather than a specific player. They have too many outfielders either at the majors or near. Mullins, Cowser, Tyler O’Neill, Heston Kjerstad, Dylan Beavers, and Jud Fabian are there are nearly there. They have to figure out the Westburg/Mayo part too. If Jackson Holiday is the second baseman and Mayo is third, Westburg no longer has a home in the infield. I’m not sure who out of this lot the Royals would want and the Orioles would be willing to part with, but it could be worth exploring. Only Beavers and Fabian are not really ready to become everyday big leaguers as of now.
Another option would be to trade with the Angels. A Taylor Ward plus something trade could give the Royals a solid and safe option in left field for 2025 and 2026. Ward is established and could be a solid bat, it is too bad he isn’t left-handed. The Royals should be able to then find something else out of this trade and the Angels generally do things that don’t make sense, so the fact that Lugo does not fit for where they are at probably doesn’t matter.
To be clear, I like Lugo and do not want to see him go. However, the Royals outfield is very, very weak. This is such a weird position, the Royals strength is their starting pitching. That has never really been the case in my lifetime, and I am not young anymore. Even without Lugo, a rotation of Ragans, Wacha, Bubic, Marsh, and Lorenzen is something the team would have killed for in many recent years. If you can move Lugo, who cannot be built around due to only controlling him through 2025, and strengthen the lineup now and into the coming year, then it should be done. That means I would only sign off on such a move if the player(s) brought back are going to be contributing beyond 2025.
Milwaukee is the blueprint that I think Kansas City should follow, and this is exactly what they did with Burnes last offseason. Keep your eye to the future, the future is expensive and KC is not able to pay Dodgers and Mets contracts out. It is possible that the deal I want is not out there, so I am not saying they absolutely must move Lugo. This team could make the playoffs and it would be nice to have him. I am just saying that it would be helpful to shore up the outfield and Lugo is not going to be in Kansas City for very long.