Spring training battles: The rotation

It’s a solid rotation either way, but who will be the fifth?

The Royals improved by 30 games last year based largely on the strength of their starting rotation. Royals starters improved from a 5.12 ERA in 2023 (fourth-worst in baseball) to 3.55 in 2024 (second-best). The days of Jordan Lyles in the rotation are long gone. Instead, the Royals have high-end talent with two of their starters earning All-Star nods, as well as the depth necessary to weather some injuries.

The team retained most of the rotation that carried them to the post-season last year. Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA, 5.3 rWAR) and Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA, 4.9 fWAR) each earned Cy Young votes last year and the only question is which one will get the nod for Opening Day. The Royals were quick to bring back Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA 3.5 rWAR), not even allowing him to reach free agency. Michael Lorenzen (7-6, 3.31 ERA, 2.6 rWAR) was also re-signed after he posted a 1.57 ERA in seven games for the Royals after being acquired from the Rangers, and the team has indicated he’ll be in the rotation.

But the rotation isn’t quite set. There is one more spot up for grabs this spring.

Battling for a rotation spot

Kris Bubic (1-1, 2.67 ERA, 0.8 rWAR) pitched exclusively out of the pen last year in his return from Tommy John surgery. In 27 appearances, he struck out 39 with just two unintentional walks, giving up zero earned runs over his last 11 innings of the season.

So far this spring, Bubic has picked up right where he left off last year. His two outings have been quite impressive with six strikeouts in four frames and just one run allowed – due to a misplay in left from Jonathan India. His fastball velocity has held up with velo sitting at 93, and his change up still looks like a plus pitch.

But the lefty has pitched a total of 46 ¹⁄₃ innings over the last two years, so you can expect the Royals to bring him along slowly. We should also remember that pitching in relief is a much different experience than pitching as a starter. Bubic has an ERA of 4.99 in 60 career starts.

Still, there are reasons to buy into his improvement – the change in pitching coaches alone should be a boon to his career. His improved cutter and sinker gives him a starter’s arsenal, so even though he was a very effective reliever, expanding his role is worth the risk.

Alec Marsh (9-9, 4.53 ERA, 0.9 rWAR) got off to a terrific start last year, posting an ERA of 3.63 over his first 12 starts. But he hit a wall after that, with the Royals demoting him for a few weeks. He significantly improved his walk rate, cutting it from 11.4 percent in 2023 to 7.1 percent last year. He could use more consistency, but he has shown some good strikeout ability and it feels like he’s close to taking it to the next level.

Unfortunately Marsh suffered some shoulder soreness in the off-season that has limited him to a few bullpen sessions and no live action yet this spring. Anne Rogers reports he had a “great bullpen” on Sunday and is “trending in the right direction” with one more scheduled bullpen. But that may leave him significantly behind in a competition to win the fifth spot, and it seems likely the Royals will be prudent and either keep him in extended spring training or have him begin in Omaha to get some more game action.

Kyle Wright did not pitch last year after having shoulder surgery in 2023. The Royals expected that after acquiring him with the expectation he would be ready for this season. Wright led the National League with 21 wins in 2022, his last full season in the big leagues, when he was a 3.7 rWAR pitcher.

Wright was eager to get going after missing so much time, but he also suffered a setback when he strained his hamstring early in camp. It doesn’t seem to be a serious injury, but it will cost Wright some valuable time to prepare for the season. Rogers reports Wright had his second bullpen session on Monday, but he’ll need to start facing live hitters soon to have any hope of being in the rotation to begin the year. He has an option year left, so the most likely outcome is he begins in Omaha to build his arm up to get back into a big league rotation.

The long shots

Noah Cameron is one of the top pitching prospects in the farm system, ranked #5 in the organization by MLB Pipeline and #8 by Baseball America. The lefty posted a 3.08 ERA in 25 starts across Double-A and Triple-A last season with 10.4 strikeouts-per-nine-innings.

When camp began, he seemed almost certainly bound to return to Omaha. But he has turned heads in camp by showing some increased velocity.

The results haven’t been as encouraging, however, as he has been touched up for four runs and eight hits in five innings over his last two outings. He will likely begin the year as Omaha’s ace, but the Royals will need 8-10 pitchers in their rotation to get through their long schedule, so expect to see Cameron making some starts in Kansas City this year.

Daniel Lynch IV made 51 starts from 2021 to 2023, with an unimpressive 5.18 ERA over that time. But he returned in 2024 as a reliever and looked quite impressive, posting a 1.84 ERA in 29 ¹⁄₃ innings of relief. He also made three starts – one where he was excellent, one where he was good, and one where he was quite bad. He also had a 6+ inning relief appearance where he gave up six runs. So his mixed results in long outings suggest his future may be in the bullpen.

He has been impressive in camp – just one run allowed and no walks in seven innings of work. But he faces an uphill battle to make the rotation, and with an already lefty-heavy pen, Lynch seems likely ticketed for Omaha – unless his spring showcase has made him attractive to other teams in a trade.

Ross Stripling is a nine-year veteran and former All-Star, but he’s nearing the end of his career. He is 35 years old, had a 6.01 ERA last year with the Athletics, and the second-lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher with at least innings. He was a longshot before camp opened, and didn’t help his cause by giving up five runs and two home runs in two innings in his first spring outing. If he stays in the organization, it will likely be in Omaha as “break in case of emergency” depth.