The Royals face an uphill battle in 2025 before it even begins
Five. That’s the number of MLB teams who spent more than the Kansas City Royals in free agency this past winter. The 106-loss Royals gave out 20 contracts, totaling $110,475,000. It all came together in a huge success, culminating in a Wild Card playoff berth. It was just the team’s third playoff appearance this century and it makes you wonder why ownership shouldn’t spend more money every year. At least, it should, until you have a little more context.
Spending is up in Major League Baseball. At the same time, many teams have no clue right now how fans will watch their baseball games in 2025. The Yankees have no problems there — they own their own network in the largest TV market in the sport. Now, into the League Championship Series, baseball’s fundamental problem again rings clear. The sport is killing itself from within. Problems at the game’s core are a larger reason behind the sports falling audience more than anything else. Perhaps that will start to turn around. This year was the first time the league had seen growing attendance in back-to-back seasons since 2012. Even if it does, the problems will limit that growth once again.
Major League Baseball’s financial disparity continues to impact the game
The League Championship Series will include — to no one’s surprise — the top three player payrolls in the sport today. The Mets in 2023 had the first Opening Day payroll north of $300 million in league history. Now, just a year later, three of the four LCS teams have a luxury tax payroll north of $300 million. The problem isn’t going away, and as many younger fans learn that their team is so severely disadvantaged, they’ll continue to turn instead to the NBA and NFL. Each of those sports offers salary limits to balance the playing field.
The NBA has a “soft cap” making Major League Baseball the only major sport in the United States without a salary cap. None of this is news. It’s been an issue ever since the strike in 1994. The problem has continued to escalate year over year, now reaching just another important threshold threatening the long-term health of the sport.
The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically changed the sport for a time. Payrolls dipped as fan attendance fell to zero. Since then, however, things have begun to escalate like never before. Before the pandemic, there was always one or two teams with a sky-high payroll. Often times it was the Yankees and Dodgers. Sometimes, the Red Sox or Giants snuck in, alongside some other large market organization. Those days are behind us. Now in 2024, a record nine Major League franchises had an Opening Day payroll of at least $200 million. The Mets topped $300 million for a second time, and both the Yankees and Dodgers both exceeded $300 million in Luxury Tax Payroll as well.
The Royals spent big last winter and went toe-to-toe with the Yankees in the League Division Series. That’s a “win” in Major League Baseball. Does any NFL fan ever think “the Bengals went toe to toe with the Raiders in the Divisional Round. That’s a win?” No. That’s a ridiculous notion. Yet, if the NFL had no cap like the MLB, that would be the reality. The Bengals rank 31st in NFL revenue at $498 million. The Raiders, on the other hand, come in second at $729 million. Major League Baseball has made itself the “little brother” in United States Major Sports by settling for nothing when it comes to correcting the sport’s largest problem.
The deck remains stacked against the Royals into 2025 and beyond
The Royals spent more than almost any offseason in franchise history last season. The result was a historic turnaround from 106 losses to a postseason berth. Does it mean they’ll spend again this coming offseason? Only time will tell. However, raising payroll $40 million year-over-year means a whole hell of a lot more for the Royals than it would for the Yankees or Dodgers. That alone, at its very core, is the problem that baseball has to correct for the health of the game.
Opinions about cheap ownership hold some merit. Some owners simply don’t spend. David Glass was notorious for shooting to “break-even” year after year rather than field a winner. That’s a problem. However, it’s a problem that probably self-corrects to a degree if the playing field were even. $40 million is 38% of the Royals 2024 Opening Day payroll after a record spending offseason. For the Mets, it makes up just 13.2% of their Opening Day payroll. For the Yankees, $40 million is spent on their center fielder alone (a great one at that, but still).
Small-market teams can win over 162 games in a season. They can even make the playoffs regularly, as seen in Tampa Bay. Once they make the postseason, however, that all changes. The Royals were the last small market team to win a World Series in 2015. St. Louis ranks 26th in MLB’s Market Score and has quietly entered perhaps the worst period in franchise history. The last time the Cardinals lost fewer than 85 games and missed the postseason in back-to-back seasons was 1998-99. 2023’s 91 losses were the most in St. Louis since 1990.
The decline of the Cardinals coinciding with the extreme growth in MLB payrolls isn’t simply a coincidence. It’s just further evidence that the sport’s core failure continues to grow. Small market teams can win over a long-haul season. Yet, come the postseason, it’s near impossible. Since 2015, just one team ranked in the bottom 20 for MLB Market Score has appeared in the World Series. The 2016 Cleveland Guardians lost in game seven to the Cubs. If you turn the clock back to 2010, three other franchises have appeared: the Royals (2014-15), Cardinals (2011, 2013), and Tigers (2012). Among them, only the Royals and Cardinals came away with a Commissioner’s Trophy.
The Kansas City Royals were a great story in 2024. They could even achieve a sustainable regular season winner over the next decade if everything falls right. What they won’t do is create a sustainable World Series contender. Not because they’re incompetent, but because the League’s fundamental flaws won’t allow it.