They’re digging a hole they have not yet been able to emerge from.
There is no mystery here – the Royals offense to start the season has been bad. The position players rank dead last in fWAR. After the first week or so of games, I noted that the Royals had been launching the ball straight up into the air to no avail, and it was killing the offense. With a small sample size, we all expected that to correct (and it has a bit – more on that later). But there’s another issue that is also holding the offense down.
First pitch strikes.
According to the Royals’ own GM, the goal of the pitcher is to get strike one. Getting ahead in the count is paramount. Hitters wilt under the pressure of going down 0-1. So if that’s the pitcher’s goal, why are the Royals hitters making it so easy?
The Royals as hitters lead the league in first-pitch strikes allowed (all data through 4/21). They have the lowest swing rate on the first pitch of a plate appearance (sort that leaderboard by 1st pitch swing %). By the power of logic, then, the Royals are taking a ton of first-pitch strikes relative to the rest of the league.
This is really not great! According to Baseball Reference splits, after an 0-1 count the league hits .210/.257/.325 for a tOPS+ of 66. The Royals as a team are hitting .210/.278/.305 for a 66 wRC+, again dead last in MLB.
The Royals offense up to this point has played like the pitcher has been spotted a free strike at the beginning of every plate appearance, every game, the whole season. Obviously they don’t have a 100% first-pitch strike rate, but dang this is awful.
So how have they made up for making strike one so easy? By being more aggressive later in the count. They are ranked in the middle of the league when it comes to overall swing rate. But that is some poor process leading to poor results. The Royals have the fourth-highest chase rate (sort by chase %) and the second-highest chase contact rate (sort same table by chase contact %). So guys go down 0-1 and then start being “protective” of the zone by swinging more aggressively at anything close.
To bring it back to contact quality, the Royals still have the highest average launch angle (sort by launch angle). It’s not as pronounced as when I looked at this metric earlier in the season – the Cubs are a very close second. In addition, average exit velocity and hard hit % have improved toward the middle of the pack. But they’re still ranked quite low in barrel rate.
In order to make that launch angle work, they have to be blasting the ball into next week, and they just aren’t. They’re second-to-last in expected wOBACON. While Salvador Perez seems to be a victim of bad luck, it doesn’t really apply to the team as a whole.
The Royals are digging themselves a hole on the first pitch of the plate appearance and are utterly struggling to make any kind of favorable contact because of it. At this point, they may need to take a small dose of medicine from Alcides Escobar.