April has not gone well for the Royals so far. I, for one, am already a little tired of talking about the lack of offensive output. We are at the point where the old adage you can’t win the World Series in April, but you can certainly lose it is coming into play. Part of the problem for the Royals of 2025 is that they did not get to beat up on the White Sox like last year in the early going. That seven-game win streak really set the tone for the season. This year it has been contenders only so far except for maybe the Twins who are digging their own hole currently.
Over the next 17 days the Royals have 16 games that could put them right back in the race. Unfortunately, that also means if they don’t take advantage of this stretch it might be time to start planning what to sell off. Mainly, that is due to the two teams at the beginning an end of this short period. The team will be playing:
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Baltimore Orioles
- Chicago White Sox
All are three-game series except for Chicago, which is four games. The Rockies and White Sox are truly bad. Both of them have a solid shot at losing 110 games and are on pace for 31 and 37 wins, respectively, at this point in the season. The White Sox have managed to win one series this season, but that’s it between the two teams. If you are playing seven games against these two you need to win five or it is a disappointment.
In between those two series, KC will be playing three teams that are not terrible, but are all flawed and off to .500 or worse starts to the season. Houston is 11-11, and the top of the bunch, but it depends on who is starting for them how scary they are. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are both really good, and it looks like the Royals will face both of them as of now, unfortunately. Tampa and Baltimore are off to a slow start and are vulnerable. Baltimore’s pitching weaknesses have been exacerbated by injury, which will hopefully help the Royals’ bats out. Can the Royals find 5 wins out of these nine games or 4 and take 6 of 7 from Chicago and Colorado? That sounds plausible and would change the narrative of this year significantly.
I think ten wins is the goal. Nine would be acceptable. Ten gets them back to one below .500, nine would put them 3 below. But, more than that, showing that they can take games from weaker teams would boost confidence a lot. So far, they have done that, taking the two series against Baltimore and Minnesota. That is the formula for this team to contend. Try to keep your head above water against the good teams and beat up on the weaker opponents. It is the strategy of baseball for most teams really. If that does not happen over this stretch, then I think the Royals are one of the weak teams to beat up on. It wouldn’t 100% end the season, but if the whole gets much deeper, trading for offensive upgrades is going to be taken off the table and this team needs an upgrade or two that do not seem to exist in the minors.
My optimism coming into the season was that the pitching would be good enough to keep Kansas City in games, and that should lead to .500ish baseball, which is contending in the AL Central. If they are contending, this front office has shown the propensity to trade and bolster weaknesses like the Harvey and Erceg additions last season. However, making trades like that only makes sense if they are solidly in the playoff picture come June. Otherwise, investing heavily in this year’s team is a lot of risk with limited upside. This lineup has shown that it is not good enough, so trading is likely going to be necessary to actually get back to October baseball in 2025. I think this stretch of baseball could push JJ Piccolo and crew in that direction, but if they continue to struggle and lose games it could push them onto the other side of the fence as sellers.
There are some players that will be free agents in the offseason or in two years that could fetch nice prices at the trade deadline. Seth Lugo and Hunter Harvey (if healthy) are the main ones, but I think Kris Bubic and Carlos Estevez would be very valuable with that extra year of control. I am hoping that it doesn’t get to that point, but it is going to be a topic of conversation soon if they can’t turn this season around quickly.