HDH set an incredible standard. HEE could be up to the challenge.
The Royals made an admirable effort to improve the bullpen starting last year at the trade deadline. They first acquired Hunter Harvey a couple weeks before the trade deadline. Then they grabbed Lucas Erceg at the trade deadline. Harvey pitched in only six games before missing the rest of the season with back issues, but Erceg stepped in and became an immediate shutdown reliever.
Not satisfied, the Royals signed free agent Carlos Estévez in the offseason. With Harvey, Erceg, and Estévez now all healthy and in the fold, The Royals have put together a Big 3 at the backend of the bullpen that we haven’t seen since HDH in 2014-2015. We now have HEE (HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE).
It’s a tough comparison – HDH set the bar incredibly high. Look – Wade Davis BY HIMSELF gathered 5.1 fWAR in 2014-2015. If you’ll remember, neither Davis and Kelvin Herrera allowed a single home run in the 2014 regular season. Aside from Yordano Ventura’s Wild Card Game Blip, the entire bullpen did not allow a single home run in the 2014 postseason.
HDH combined for 6.7 fWAR in 2014 and 3.4 fWAR in 2015 to eclipse 10 fWAR all together in the magical World Series runs.
That’s a ridiculous standard. But I think HEE can carve out their own legend in Royals bullpen history.
Starting with Harvey, his best season as a reliever was 2023, when he accrued 1.3 fWAR. For Erceg, it was 2024 with 1.7 fWAR. For Estévez, it was 2024 with 1.2 fWAR. Together, if you just sort of amalgamate their best seasons as their “peak” performance, their best as a group is 4.2 fWAR. That beats 2015 HDH! A World Series-winning team!
Reliever performance is fickle, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The various projection systems seem to settle in on 1.5 – 2.5 fWAR for HEE as a unit depending on how much playing time the system gives each of the guys. That would be solid performance, but it probably would end up as a disappointment for fans. Erceg and Harvey seem like they’re on the “upswing”, and Estévez found a new level of performance in 2024. Given the comparison to HDH, expectations are high.
I just think we may need to have the proper context. 2014 HDH was an all-world backend. An outlier. Steamer projected them for only 2.6 fWAR in 2014 and 2.2 fWAR in 2015. ZiPS projected HDH for 3.2 fWAR in 2015 (ZiPS projected Wade Davis to be a starter in 2014). HEE’s projections for 2025 are roughly in the same range as Steamer.
So it’s entirely possible that a little favorable bounce in HEE’s direction could have them living up to HDH. Whether or not it happens, I’m going to enjoy the ride.