The Seth Lugo conundrum

In which the pesky player option rears its fickle head.

Seth Lugo dominated Friday night.

Facing the Houston Astros in his sixth start of the season, Lugo threw a gem, having by far his best outing of the season as the Royals prevailed 2-0. During his previous starts, Lugo had tossed no more than 6.2 innings, but this time he went a full eight while completely shutting down the Astros offense.

After allowing three earned runs in his last start against the Tigers, in which he labored through 6-and-two-thirds over 105 pitches, Lugo efficiently silenced the Astros bats in just 94 pitches, allowing only three hits and one walk while fanning a season-high eight batters.

Two outings ago against the Yankees, he allowed four home runs. Against the Tigers, he gave up one long ball. The Astros were left wanting for mere base hits.

On the season, Lugo, 35, in his second year with the Royals, is 2-3 with a 3.08 ERA, a 4.60 FIP, a 1.079 WHIP. While his strikeout percentage is down from 2024 and his walk and home run percentages are up, it appears Lugo righted things in a strong way with his most recent start.

Of course, time will. His next start is set for Thursday on the road against the Rays. But things are looking good that Lugo’s getting back to his 2024 form, and, lest we forget, he finished second in the American League in Cy Young voting last season.

If he accomplishes a similar feat, or something even in an adjacent neighborhood, though, one of two things will happen: he’s either going to cost the Royals a lot more money in 2026, or he’s going to be pitching for a different organization.

And if he craters, if he falters, if he fails to live up to expectations, well, he’ll be back in Kansas City at the not-insignificant sum of $15 million.

Such is life with the existence of the player option.

***

Player’s options have become increasingly popular in baseball over the past two decades. Off the top of my head, I can think back to Alex Rodriguez opting out of multiple contracts in order to maximize his payday, once taking him from Arlington to New York.

Then there are the players who underperform (for whatever reason) and decide, much to the chagrin of their employer, I imagine, to return. Think Jordan Montgomery this past offseason.

The Royals were recently involved with an interesting case of the player option. Starting pitcher Michael Wacha joined Kansas City on a short-term deal that included a player option, which he exercised after a strong season. But he worked with the Royals on returning, never truly tested free agency, and in November, inked a brand-new three-year extension with a four-year club option.

But that’s rare.

I’d wager that won’t happen with Seth Lugo.

Look, I’m mostly player over owner, but I root for the team. Most fans root for the team. That doesn’t mean you cannot wish a player well when he leaves for a new deal, but the fact remains, I’m a Kansas City Royals fan, not a Seth Lugo fan. The Royals have done nothing so egregious that made me think of not rooting for them, but I know of other fan bases where that’s happened.

Seth Lugo bargained for, and received, a player option for 2026, and it’s his right to exercise or decline it. If he pitches well, he’ll exercise it to make more money. And that’s great for him. He should. He’s only been a starting pitcher for a bit, and he turns 36 in the offseason. The clock is ticking on his player career. Get that bag, Seth.

If he pitches poorly, he’ll decline to opt out. Which is…well, to be determined, I guess. Most likely it won’t end well for the Royals, as they’ll be on the hook for a declining pitcher earning $15 million, but it’s only for one year. It’s not like the Royals can’t afford it—they most certainly can. But a faltering Lugo will eat up a portion of the budget while possessing a valuable roster spot. Again, he could bounce back—the odds of that would just be low.

As fans, we’re really only left with one option: hope the player performs well now to help the team win now while knowing that he’ll opt out to test free agency and hope he returns.

There’s really no other course of action.

Based off his first start of the season and then starts three through five, it looked like Seth Lugo would be returning to the Royals next year. Which would mean he effectively failed this season, and without him pitching well, the Royals aren’t going anywhere.

After his sixth start, though, there’s now hope: hope for Lugo pitching well in 2025 and hope for the Royals competing in 2025.

There’s also a little bit of dread knowing that Lugo may depart after just two seasons in Kansas City and that the Royals will have to find someone new to replace his production.

Player options: fickle little instruments.