The Twins faded fast in 2024.
After sweeping the Guardians in a doubleheader on August 9 last summer, the Twins were just 1.5 games out of first with the fourth-best record in the American League, poised to make their fifth post-season appearance in eight years. Instead, they lost 30 of their final 47 games, including a September sweep at the hands of the Royals that dropped them below Kansas City in the standings. They dropped their final four games of the year and missed the playoffs with an 82-80 mark.
Despite that disappointment and the failure to win a five-game post-season series in over 20 years, the Twins largely sat on their hands this off-season, spending just $10 million on free agents. They are still expected to be contenders in the Central Division, but with uncertainty over the future ownership of the franchise, there may not be much in financial support for their post-season push.
Minnesota Twins (3-6) vs. Kansas City Royals (4-5) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Twins: 3.89 runs scored/game (17th in MLB), 5.22 runs allowed/game (24th)
Royals: 4.00 runs scored/game (15th), 4.00 runs allowed/game (9th)
The Twins lost their first four games of the year, getting swept by the Cardinals. But they won their series against the White Sox before dropping two of three at home against the Astros. The team is missing two infielders – Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis are both out with injuries. Harrison Bader was the most notable addition to the lineup, and he has gotten off to a great start with three home runs in his first eight games. On the other hand, Carlos Correa, who was their big free agent from a few years ago, is off to a miserable 4-for-32 start (.125).
Matt Wallner was one of the best hitters in baseball last year against right-handed pitchers, batting .275/.387/.566. Trevor Larnach is a career .302/.419/.490 hitter against the Royals in 31 games. Twins hitters are batting .284/.325/.514 with runners on scoring position this year, one of the best marks in baseball.
The Twins had the fewest stolen bases in baseball last year and have attempted just seven steals this year – one of them by speedster DeShawn Keirsey Jr. a possible pinch-runner late in games.
All statistics from 2024
Twins starting pitchers have been the worst in baseball so far, with a collective 6.98 ERA.
Simeon Woods-Richardson failed to pitch more than five innings in his two outings against the Royals last year, nor in his first start against the White Sox this year. He throws 93 mph with a very hittable changeup that opponents hit .311 against last year, as well as a curve and slider. He gives up a lot of hard-hit contact and a lot of flyballs, but was fairly effective at suppressing home runs last year.
Pablo López won 15 games last year and was top ten in the American League in innings pitched, strikeouts, lowest walk rate, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. In six career starts against the Royals, he is 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA. His best pitch is a sweeper than generated a 33 percent whiff rate last year.
Joe Ryan has never lost to the Royals, going 6-0 in eight career starts with a 1.49 ERA. He has yet to walk a hitter in two starts and he had the sixth-lowest walk rate among pitchers with 100 innings last year, but he leads the league this year with four hit batters. Ryan throws his 94 mph four-seamer more than half the time, mixing in a splitter, sweeper, slider, and sinker.
Bailey Ober was rocked in his first start against the Cardinals, giving up eight runs in less than three innings of work, similar to his first start of the 2024 season against the Royals when he gave up eight runs in less than two innings. Last year he had the ninth-best strikeout-to-walk ratio among qualified pitchers. He also had the second-highest flyball rate at 50.3 percent.
All statistics from 2024
The Twins bullpen has yet to record a save, but overall have a 2.84 ERA. Griffin Jax was second among all relievers in fWAR last year, but has given up six hits, two home runs, and three runs in 2 2⁄3 innings so far this year. Jhoan Duran converted 23-of-25 save opportunities last year, but struggled on the road with a 5.04 ERA.
Cole Sands had the seventh-lowest walk rate among relievers last year. Justin Topa missed most of last year with injury, but had a 2.61 ERA in 75 games with the Mariners in 2023. Danny Coulombe returns to the Twins after a year with the Orioles where lefties hit just .175/.175/.225 against him. Former Royals pitcher Scott Blewett was called up this week after a 1.77 ERA in 12 outings with the Twins last year.
All statistics from 2024
The Royals dropped two of three in the season-opening series last year as the Twins edged them 7-6 in the season series. The Royals would get the last laugh, however, finishing four games better than Minnesota and reaching the post-season. The Twins have some talent, but have been underachievers for several seasons. Will they rebound from last year’s collapse, or is this the beginning of the end for this group?