Looking ahead to 2025
That was fun, wasn’t it? Isn’t that what we’re trying to convince ourselves? That the 2024 season was a blast? In a lot of ways, it was. I mean think about it, they went from 106 losses in 2023 to 86 wins and a playoff berth in 2024. What’s not to like about that?
Maybe I’m alone in this thought, but for some nagging reason, I didn’t enjoy the season, and the playoff run as much as I did the 2014-2015 playoff teams. I can’t put a finger on it. Maybe it’s because once I realized that the Royals were a good team, and they were, I felt like they could have achieved more. Hence, there’s a feeling of missing something. Could they have won more games? Should they have won the division? Should they have beaten the Yankees?
The early part of the season was stained by the stadium voter revolt and that left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. Opponents of the new stadium plan were almost militant. Proponents of the new stadium were left frustrated. That alone took some of the focus off the team’s early success and sapped some of the joy we should have felt about this team. Maybe it was the way they stumbled down the stretch, saved only by the slumps of the teams chasing them?
I don’t know. I’m not a sports psychologist. Most days I have a hard enough time figuring out who I am, let alone trying to decipher the psyche of a fan base.
One of my close friends in town, Charlie, is a hardcore, diehard Yankee fan. He told me after the Royals-Yankees series the feeling he and other Yankee fans had. He said, “we were sweating that series out. The Royals were tough. They had chances to beat us.”
And after watching the Yankees dismantle Cleveland, I do feel better about that series. Had the Royals made a few better decisions at key times (more on that later) and picked up a few clutch hits, they could have won that series.
Looking ahead, where does this team go? Can they make incremental improvements to bump up to say 96-98 wins? That would put them in the driver’s seat for a division title. They’re not that far off. Another pitcher or two, and one more productive bat, and they’re there. Of course, there are a hundred things that could go wrong. Players can, and will, get injured. Some who made progress in 2024 could regress. Age will claim someone. Other teams are also competing for that pitcher and bat that we covet.
It’s a fine line they’re walking and if things don’t break their way, they could drop back to being a 74–78-win team watching the 2025 playoffs from home.
Let’s start at the top and work down.
First, owner John Sherman and the Royals’ staff. Sherman has taken a lot of heat from the fans, as most owners do, but I’ll be the first to congratulate him on a fine season. He opened his checkbook, signing Bobby Witt Jr. to a lucrative extension, and allowed J.J. Picollo to add several free agents. I’ve never met Sherman, but I believe he wants to build a sustainable winner in Kansas City. The only error he made this season was the poorly handled PR program around the downtown stadium push.
I’ve finally come around to the idea of a downtown stadium for several reasons. I love the K, but the reality is Kauffman is now older than Municipal was when it was vacated. I know, apples and oranges. But the few times I’ve been in downtown Kansas City this last year have been enlightening. Things are happening downtown. I can feel a new energy and a downtown ballpark would just be the cherry on top. When the Royals move downtown, and they will, we will miss the K. But we’ll also grow to love the new ballpark.
How about the job J.J. Picollo and his staff did? Their success really started when he lifted Cole Ragans from the Rangers at the 2023 trade deadline. If Ragans has another 5-6 solid years for the Royals, that trade could go down as one of the best in club history. The gold standard for lopsided trades is the Cedric Tallis deals. The Ragans trade could easily become one of those. Picollo also struck gold with the signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. His 2024 trade deadline deals weren’t as inspiring. Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman, and Yuli Gurriel each had a moment, but none of them are part of the long-term solution. The trade for Lucas Ecreg was a winner, offset by the stinker deal that netted Hunter Harvey. But credit goes to Picollo for making an effort.
A tip of the cap to Matt Quatraro and his coaching staff. There were times when I was pulling out what little hair I had left over bullpen usage, batting order decisions, and ill-fated attempts on the basepaths, but at the end of the day, they guided this team to a 30-game improvement and won a playoff series. That deserves some respect, and I give it to them.
For the players, let’s start with the pitching staff. There’s a lot to like here. The staff carried this team, and they’ll need to do it again in 2025. Ragans, Lugo and Wacha were mostly excellent. I hope the Royals keep Wacha and I hope he’ll want to stay. The Royals have had a solid record of helping pitchers turn things around, going back to guys like Jeff Suppan, Paul Byrd, and Ervin Santana.
Santana is a great example for Wacha. Ervin had a very good season for KC back in 2013 on a one-year deal. He made 32 starts and threw 211 innings and despite only posting a 9-10 record he had a fine 3.24 ERA. Santana wanted to get paid and thought big bucks awaited him in the offseason. He made $13 million playing for the Royals and Kansas City was on the cusp of greatness. There wasn’t much of a market that off-season and Magic eventually signed a one-year deal with Atlanta for just $14 million right before the season started. He was terrific for Atlanta (14-10, 3.95 ERA) and later went to division rival Minnesota for about the same money ($13 million per year), but had he stayed in KC, who knows, maybe the Royals win the World Series in 2014. Kauffman is a pitcher-friendly park. Kansas City is a nice city for a family. I hope Wacha considers that.
There will be some holes to fill. Will Smith and Chris Stratton might have thrown their last pitches for KC. I don’t see anything in Harvey. James McArthur has potential but is a question mark. On the positive side, Daniel Lynch, Angel Zerpa, Sam Long, and Kris Bubic all took steps forward. I’d like to see the team hold onto Michael Lorenzen. The feeling is they still need to either acquire or develop a couple of topflight bullpen arms. If Wacha and Lorenzen stay, the starting rotation looks solid: Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer, and a combination of Lorenzen and Alec Marsh.
Kyle Wright, who was outstanding in Atlanta before being injured, also returns from injury and could be a wild card. Perhaps one of the young arms from Omaha makes the team. There are plenty of possible choices, such as Chandler Champlain, Noah Cameron, Evan Sisk, and Eric Cerantola, just to name a few. Despite some shaky moments from the bullpen, the pitching staff remains the strength of this team.
At catcher, the Royals were blessed. Salvy continues to defy Father Time and Freddie Fermin was excellent as his understudy. Until the Royals’ young minor league catchers mature, I’d hold onto Fermin. I would like to see Salvy spend his offseason getting into better shape. When I see Salvy, I think that his brain says cardio and lifting, but his stomach says donuts. This was evident when Vance Wilson sent him home against the Yankees. Yes, that’s on Wilson, who had absolutely no business sending Sal home on that play. But Sal can help himself, and the team, by dropping 15 or so pounds and reporting in great shape. It’d probably help extend his career too. He’s the captain and captains are supposed to lead by example.
First base is Vinnie’s. The team does need to find a serviceable backup. That became obvious when Vinnie went down. Salvy has been excellent in his time at first, but for some reason, the team abandoned this approach in the playoffs as Fermin disappeared onto the bench. If they keep Fermin, it solves both problems.
I’m going to combine second and third base together. Michael Massey and Maikel Garcia will be on the 2025 team. I like both players and do think they’ll continue to improve. Who comes next? Nick Loftin? I’d be in favor of hanging onto DeJong for depth. Expect the team to keep either Adam Frazier or Garrett Hampson as insurance.
Shortstop. You’re kidding right? Barring injury, this is Bobby Jr. for 162 games. Piccolo and staff would be wise to find a playable backup to give Bobby an occasional day off. Witt is a physical freak but come playoff time he looked a little tired.
The outfield remains the team’s weakness. Guys like Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez, and Hunter Renfroe are the blue jeans shorts of ball players. Every team has a pair, and they hang onto them, despite your spouse and close friends silently shaking their heads every time you trot them out. Hey! They still look good and maybe someday they’ll come back in style, no?
No, they won’t. They are what they are, and they’ve seen their best days.
The outfield market is slim and until the Royals develop someone (Tyler Gentry, John Rave, Gavin Cross?), these three are who we are going to war with. Isbel’s glove will play and Renfroe had moments (prior to injury) where he looked like he was locked in. Melendez is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. He’s got immense physical skills and his glovework improved significantly. But that swing. Oof! I’ve been on the record many times before advocating for Melendez to hire a batting coach and rebuild his swing in the offseason. I don’t expect him to do that, so until his replacement arrives, he’ll play.
Good outfielders are hard to find. Finding two solid outfielders is hard enough. Finding three is damn near impossible right now. They had one with a good bat in Brent Rooker, but the brain trust gave up on him too soon. Water under the bridge.
The bench will be in flux. Could be Fermin, Hampson, Frazier and possibly someone from Omaha like Loftin, Cam Devanney, Devin Mann or Javier Vaz take a step forward. I’d be okay keeping DeJong and Tommy Pham around for spring training and see what they have. Dairon Blanco could be back for one more season. Or Picollo and the staff might completely churn this part of the roster for new blood.
There’s a lot to look forward to. The nucleus is there, it’s now up to Picollo to work some magic and fill in the openings they have. Before the season started, I predicted this group would win 72 games. I’ve never been happier to be wrong in my life.