The good or the bad?
You can contextualize why the Kansas City Royals made the playoffs last year in a few different ways. Most of the credit goes to the MVP-level play of Bobby Witt Jr. and a vastly improved starting rotation featuring two of the top four finishers in the AL Cy Young voting.
But there is one group that was the real reason why the Royals got to the playoffs, and it had nothing to do with Witt, Lugo, Ragans, Salvy, or Wacha. It was the Royals bullpen that powered the way through the ALDS.
Now, that may sound silly. It is not. Kansas City ripped out the entire back end of their bullpen and replaced it in the middle of the season, a series of moves that paid huge dividends. Remember the Baltimore Orioles Wild Card series? It was anchored by Kris Bubic and Lucas Erceg, who combined to pitch four scoreless innings in the most stressful of situations. Neither player was on the Opening Day roster.
Bubic and Erceg weren’t the only ones. Daniel Lynch IV, once perhaps the most frustrating of the four blue chip prospects in the famed 2018 Royals draft class, was called up for good on August 26. Lynch threw 20.2 innings through the rest of the regular season and didn’t give up a single run.
Put it this way: through July 12, the first time new acquisition Hunter Harvey pitched in a game, the Royals bullpen had the ninth-lowest Wins Above Replacement (per Fangraph) in the league and was second worst in K-BB%. Matt Quatraro was unfairly criticized for his bullpen management because he just didn’t have the weapons.
After July 12, the new faces started to make that difference. During the back half of the regular season, the Royals bullpen was 11th best in the league with a 2.6 fWAR and, most importantly, was right in the middle of the pack in K-BB%. Erceg, Lynch, and Bubic were the main reasons why, and the difference between them and the likes of Chris Stratton, Will Smith, and Nick Anderson was gigantic.
This brings us to 2025, though, and it is reasonable to ask just what the bullpen is going to look like.
The biggest reason is that it seems that two of the big players in the bullpen renaissance last year—Bubic and Lynch—are both candidates for the rotation now that Brady Singer is in Cincinnati:
But Singer’s departure created some questions about the rotation: Who would fill those 179 2/3 innings Singer, a durable starter, contributed last season?
The Royals believe in their contingent of young starters, which includes Alec Marsh, Kris Bubic, Kyle Wright, Daniel Lynch IV and others. All will compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training.
Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha are locks for the rotation. After that, the next two spots are up for grabs. And the issue is that, if Lynch and Bubic take said rotation spots, they would be subtracting from the back end of the bullpen.
Erceg is poised to continue to be the closer. After that, though, Quatraro didn’t have a clear eighth inning guy. He used a combination of Angel Zerpa (a lefty) and John Schreiber (a righty) in the playoffs, with Bubic the quasi-eighth inning guy or cleanup man. But, again, if Bubic is in the rotation, what does that mean for the bullpen?
Some of the Royals bullpen hopes do pin on Hunter Harvey. Last year, Harvey injured his back and the Royals shut him down in September after minimal progress. But when healthy, Harvey was another one of the high-strikeout guys the Royals need. Over 2022 and 2023 with the Washington Nationals, Harvey posted a 2.70 ERA and struck out 28.6% of batters—a figure higher than Erceg’s career strikeout rate.
If I was king of the Royals, I would want to keep Bubic in the bullpen. In his first full year since returning from Tommy John surgery, he’s going to be limited in innings pitched. Why not put him in the bullpen, where he is an established monster? Seriously: in his career as a reliever, he’s tossed 57.2 innings with a 2.97 ERA and a 26.8% strikeout rate.
The good news for the Royals is that they have some potential minor league options for the first time in a long time, too. Eric Cerantola, 24, is a 6’ 5” righty who has spent his minor league career mowing down hitters and has only gotten more deadly. In 2022, he struck out 26.7% of batters; in 2023, he struck out 29.6% of batters; and in 2024, he struck out 31.4% of batters, including 31.3% of Triple-A batters. Noah Cameron, 25, dominated during his nine Triple-A starts after proving himself at Double-A with a great changeup; his 27.8% strikeout rate in 2024 is even more impressive considering he’s been a starting pitcher.
If I had to guess, I’d say that the Royals will probably have a better bullpen overall than they did last year, but that there are still some weak spots. Harvey does give me a little bit of Brandon Maurer vibes, which is not great, and Bubic and Lynch have been plagued with injury issues and inconsistent performance throughout their careers even considering their recent success.
In any case, the Royals have showed the ability to quickly pivot when things aren’t working, and that alone gives me cause for optimism with next year’s bullpen.